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The lady is for turning

• Brian Taylor
• 26 Apr 07, 01:29 PM

With commendable sagacity, Annabel Goldie forecast that the media will report her speech today as a strategic U-turn. She鈥檚 right. They will. Because it was.

Or rather it was an S-bend. Miss Goldie opened this election campaign by declaring that the Tories would no longer obsess about the Union.

Instead, they would focus upon 鈥渂read and butter issues鈥�.

Wise observers reckoned that was because the issue of the constitution had laid the Tories low. Across Europe, parties of the Right tend to rely substantially on the patriotic vote. They are flag wavers.

Over recent decades, in Scotland, the Tories picked the wrong flag. They were seen, arguably unfairly, as an English party. Scotland wanted to see political hands clutching the Saltire.

Slowly, painfully slowly, the Tories have struggled back from utter collapse - a collapse hastened by their opposition to self-government.

Hence, their decision this time around to major on issues like affordable housing, families, crime and drugs. Not the Union.

David Cameron signalled a change with his speech at Gretna Green.

The clue was in the warm-up act. He was accompanied on that occasion by David Trimble, the former leader of the Ulster Unionists who has joined the Tories.

You do not field a prominent Unionist when you are planning to talk about affordable housing.

Today Annabel Goldie delivered a speech in Edinburgh billed as her 鈥淪tate of the Union鈥� address.

So what is the Union鈥檚 condition, according to Miss Goldie? Pretty parlous 鈥� but open to rescue.

And would Miss Goldie mount that rescue? Under Scotland鈥檚 system, a First Minister does not simply emerge.

To be appointed FM, you have first to carry a vote in Holyrood among MSPs.

It鈥檚 an iterative system 鈥� with repeated exhaustive ballots. To win, you need an overall majority of those voting.

Annabel Goldie says there is 鈥� and will be 鈥� a majority of Unionist supporters in Holyrood.

Would she then join a Unionist coalition? Or at least vote for a Unionist First Minister?

She says no 鈥� or rather she declined, repeatedly, to answer when quizzed by the wicked media (self included.)

Why so? Because the Tories say their policies aren鈥檛 for sale, they won鈥檛 do deals.

Because, I strongly suspect, the Tory faithful simply wouldn鈥檛 countenance the idea of their party propping up Labour or the LibDems.

After all, their core pitch is that the 鈥淟ib-Lab pact鈥�, as they call it, has been useless.

If it came to the bit, do I think Annabel Goldie and her colleagues would vote for Alex Salmond? Of course not. I think they would do their sums 鈥� and work out how best to thwart the SNP, if possible.

But they can鈥檛 say so now because it runs counter to their strategy.

You see, they don鈥檛 face these questions when they stick to 鈥渂read and butter鈥�.

Then, it鈥檚 quite reasonable to say that they would judge each issue as it arises and vote accordingly.

But voting for a First Minister is quite different. It鈥檚 fundamental, the starting point 鈥� and the elementary choice is likely to be between the leader of the largest party supporting the Union and the leader of the SNP.

By reverting to the issue of the Union, Annabel Goldie prompts the issue of where she would stand in that choice.

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