Confident predictions
A visibly nervy Alastair Darling is reading a script written by Gordon Brown's Treasury. He has just announced the key facts - that his growth forecast is down and borrowing forecast is up.
The politics is still to come but I confidently predict that he will announce a significant reform of inheritance tax and extra spending for health and education. Calculators out at the end to be sure what it really means.
UPDATE AT 03:55PM: Now the politics begins...
Imitation is, they say, the sincerest form of flattery.
He has just lifted the proposal of the Tories and the Lib Dems to reform air passenger duty so it is a per plane rather than a per passenger tax.
And - having - rubbished Tory proposals to raise £3.5 billion from "non domicile" taxpayers - he signalled that he would look at the very same issue. It's worth noting that the Treasury review of this began in 2003.
UPDATE 04:12PM: There we go. He has, in fact, in effect doubled the inheritance tax threshold for widows and widowers and backdated it too. This is winning the jeers of the Tories for stealing their ideas but the chancellor will comfort himself that this will re-assure precisely that group of voters in marginal seats who were wooed by the Tories and will be welcomed by the Daily Mail, amongst others, as a boost for marriage.
George Osborne's most powerful line of attack is that Gordon Brown has talked about having a vision but had to wait for the Tories to tell him what it is.
I'm 
Comments
It's barely surprising that money will be found for an increase in inheritance tax. After the usual shrill voices that the Tory proposal on such a scheme couldn't work 'cos the-sums-don't-add-up it appears as though they now do and yes, it can be done. Do you remember the debate on a previous blog as to the reasons why it couldn't be done, otherwise Gordon would have done it already? Aint life grand? Can you actually believe anything whatsoever that the Government tells you?
Married couples can currently structure their affairs through their wills to use both allowances anyway.
Surly it is the measure of a government more interested in the well being of its citizens, than party politics, that is willing to look at the ideas of its opposition and when they are good or practical - swallow their pride and use them.
Does anyone seriously believe that he wouldn't have included the bits about inheritence tax if the Tories hadn't made their statements last week? Move over Darling ....
Ha, the cheek of the man, if you cannot think of your own ideas, steal the oppositions. How the desperate cling to power and call any idea their own is amazing. What next, bugs placed under the tables at Conservative central office?
Hi Nick. So the recession and unemployment of more then 3 million like we used to get under the Tories is not going to materialise. While 85% of the so-called non-doms are already paying billions in tax every year. Where was the 2.88 billion going to come from under the Tories Nick? They would have come from BLACK WEDNESDAYS, RECESSIONS, OLD PEOPLE DYING OF HYPOTHERMIA, AND AN NHS OF A THIRD WORLD COUNTRY, + A CURRENCY WORTH NOTHING!
While we are happy to brand prime ministers, are we now correct to call the leader of the opposition:
PINOCCHIO
Nick - you are aware that to many people the change in inheritance tax will make little difference due to the use of trusts. ( 2x300k = 600k anyway ! )
Its a welcome simplification, and makes access to your full allowances not dependent on access to a lawyer. But is hardly a give away.
Do you think its fully costed ? Has Gordon forensically run over the numbers or has he just panicked ? Give them a hard time on this one for us please.
The IHT announcement is a total con trick. As Steve has already pointed out, a married couple can already easily use both single allowances. Any half-baked lawyer knows how to structure a will to effect this. So the effect of this "concession" is virtually nil.
Nick
You ought to make some effort to disguise your personal annoyance at the government.
Incidentally, what did you make of Rory Bremner's impression of you on his new show on Sunday?
Do his sums add up? Because Darling said Osborne's didn't last week.
All good Governments learn from their mistakes. It seems this government is no different. I only hope they do not lose a sense of what they are hoping to achieve through following the old mantra of tax less and public services suffer more.
Also, did anyone notice that yesterday the PM asked Adam Boulton to express the first question at Prime Ministers Media Conference. Does this mean Â鶹¹ÙÍøÊ×Ò³Èë¿Ú Political Editor is not a favoured son? Any answers to this.
I sometimes wonder if the only people who make comments on this blog are kids...
This Labour govt has been the most disgraceful govt in my 70 years of life!
I shall never vote for them again... ever!
Nick,
Why no mention of the 'Tory crib-sheet' left on the photocopier?! Surely there's a young Tory researcher looking for a new job this evening?!
Dear Nick - not so fast! Darling has put together 2 existing £300k thresholds to make a "doubled" £600k threshold. I suspect couples with assets of thos elevels will be using both thresholds anyway, so this "doubling" will not save estates a penny! Sounds like Darling's been taking spin lessons from his boss!
Hi Albert. What on earth are you talking about, exactly?
Labour can carry on, this proxy Tory government can steal and implement all the pseudo Tory policies it likes.
I'm sure there are plenty more in reserve. They will be a lot simpler than the catches and small print of these Labour gimmicks.
I think the electorate will not be impressed, why have faux when they could have voted for the real deal?
It only adds to the voter impression that Labour are out of ideas and have no vision.
Keep going Gordon and Darling, each day you are in power, is a day less.
In a word...desperate!
Scrambling around trying to make people believe their tax burden is down when realy it's up and due to go up further.
I genuinely believe they've lost it!
Hi Nick
Gordon Brown- the quintessential charlatan, the maverick of integrity, and the darkest-side of national political life -has fallen even more in my estimation- he has come out from the 'shadows' of last week, and like a thief in the night has stolen most of the decent ideas from the Conservative Party!!
It is time for change!
Why does anybody think Labour is left wing anymore? Clearly they are not! The Nu-Labour settlement was to accept Thatcherite economics - they have been pursuing laisser-faire economics ever since 1997 (apart from picking on groups they don't like such as IT contractors). The big con. of Nu-Labour has really been against its own supporters - beats me why guys like Saint Snow still support Labour. But then of course, alongside "right wing" economics, Nu-Labour have blended in right-on social liberalism - hence all the multi-culti, politically correct rubbish they have forced on us - if they had not pursued that agenda, then they might have actually succeeded in their aim of destroying the Conservative Party. As for mass immigration - it achieves two aims - it pleases the purblind left, whilst keeping the plutocrats happy with an ever ready source of cheap labour - what beggars belief about that is the way the trade unions have swallowed this in direct contradiction to the best interests of their own members (keeping competition in the labour market down so wages can rise).
In short, Nu-Labour is one big con. on both the left and the right - solid Labour people like Peter Kilfoyle recognised this years ago - he resigned as a Minister, just wonder why he did not resign from the party (sentiment I suppose).
Worryingly I'm beginming to feel a bit sorry for Master Osborne. He looks so like a fourth-former who's just had his gobstoppers confiscated!
Inheritance Tax: Once again we have Labour Spin to try and score a point. As people have already pointed out £300,000 x 2 =£600,000 which is exactly what we have at present if one organises oneself to benefit fully from existing arrangements. As presented, it gives the impression of a doubling of allowance whereas it is almost certainly not. They really do take us for fools.
Now that Gordon (sorry Alistair) has removed taper relief from AIM shares, is he going to allow them into ISAs? There is going to be an awful lot of selling before the year end as investors scramble to make use of reliefs before they go. Pity those who set up their affairs to make use of taper relief only to see it go without any transitional allowance?
It's so very depressing hearing a Labour chancellor announcing a tax cut for the top few percent.
Depressingly predictable too. And people wonder why social mobility is so low in this country.
Nick, when we have confirmation by a financial institution that the Tories sums add up, then some people might understand what we are talking about. So far for the Tories 1-2=3
Have a nice day Nick.
Suddenly floating Tory voters in marginal seats have real power ! Real power ! They can change government policy overnight by giving the Tories a good time in the polls.
The more Brown follows the Tory line - the more he alienates his own followers and critics alike. Floating Tory voters will increasingly stick with Cameron. But pressure will build. Blairites and the left will sharpen their tongues and knives.
Someone will break ranks - there will be talk of challenge and change.
Things have just got interesting ...
As Darling made clear the Tories' sums do NOT add up, unsurprising that Robinson's Tories feel obliged to reapeat falsehoods above.
Nor that Old Nick ignores the considerable difference between what is being done, after extensive review, (some of it since 2003 as stated) and the Tories' scarely costed headline grabbing nonsense.
Darling made clear the likely damage that the Tories' £25,000 poll tax on foreign non domiciled workers would have done and propsed a better scheme in the light of the longstanding investigations.
Why was this not the headline here then, when the retention of the doctors etc which the Tories' would have driven away, will beneft many more people than the raise in the lower limit for joint Death duties?
The Â鶹¹ÙÍøÊ×Ò³Èë¿Ú needs to re-examine quite how this blog "is a part of Nick Robinson does." (possibly not the exact quote, but then I am in lofty company if it is incorrect."
Well,well, well: Another Conservative policy stolen by Labour. Power to the people please.
Those who say that the new Inheritance Tax thresholds are nothing new because you can achieve the same result by setting up a trust are missing the point.
Inheritance Tax has become an issue because 'ordinary people' now find themselves with houses worth more than the previous threshold and they would like to be able to pass them on to their children free of tax.
'Ordinary people' do not engage with lawyers to set up trusts (I don't know for certain but I'll take a wild guess that lawyers don't do this for free).
However those self-same 'ordinary people' are now effortlessly covered by the new thresholds - and the proposal is (if I've understood it right) back-dated to include those whose wife or husband has already died.
I therefore think it's a winner - and if the Tories harp on about trusts they'll simply have get a reaction of 'Eh? I thought that David Cameron was like me but he obviously isn't.'
The change to IHT does not need to be costed, as it essentially makes no difference to the current situation. Just makes it easier for couples to organise their affairs.
Indeed, it could be considered a con, but let's see what difference it makes in the Daily Mail or such like. People tend to believe what they hear, regardless of the facts.
Otherwise, why isn't there an outcry over double taxation all the time? When I pay the plumber, or for goods with VAT, or for flights. In fact, whenever money changes hands for services.
No, only when people give money away for someone doing nothing. That is how to reward hard work. I forgot.
This actually opens up a can of worms.
e.g. what happens if partner no 1 dies and wills away £600,000? Does the survivor have NIL allowance? What happens if the widow re-marries?
This is all a hasty, badly thought out spin that gives little away.
£300,000 each - £600,000 per couple - maybe next year £900,000 per "family"
Nick Quote: He has, in fact, in effect doubled the inheritance tax threshold for widows and widowers and backdated it too. Unquote
Come on Nick didn't you read the small print? This is still Labour and it is still spinning. 2*£300k = £600k. Let's be careful with the reports. The old situation did not require a fancy lawyer, just read the Which? tax advice.
The significant concession is that it is backdated for widows and widowers. The Tories should say: "thank you, we're delighted that you are implementing our idea. When we come to power we'll raise the £700k to £1M as promised, and we'll use the extra money from our non-Dom fees to make further targeted tax cuts." Admittedly it means that couples with a £2M estate will have to pay some death duties but its unusual for both people to die together, it's mostly a widows problem. And it makes Brown's insistence that "the sums don't add up" look utterly ridiculous.
Nick - you are aware that to many people the change in inheritance tax will make little difference due to the use of trusts. ( 2x300k = 600k anyway ! )
Its a welcome simplification, and makes access to your full allowances not dependent on access to a lawyer. But is hardly a give away.
Do you think its fully costed ? Has Gordon forensically run over the numbers or has he just panicked ? Give them a hard time on this one for us please.
Man in a shed
Er if many people use trusts then surely there is little to be costed??? Nick please explain simple maths to the tories
Wow. An inheritance tax cut that is, in fact, nothing but spin (married couples get a joint allowance anyway), a decision not to call an election that had "nothing to do with the polls". Do they really think we'll fall for this stuff. I think labour are confusing apathy amongst the electorate with political illiteracy.
Look at Brown during the chancellor's speech - the most animated I have ever seen him - a smug Cheshire Cat grin and constantly pointing at the opposition especially when stealing Tory policies. Not the image of a responsible statesmanlike Prime Minister with integrity - more some cheap politician more interested in playing dark party politics and trying to score tricks against the opposition than doing the best for the country. Comrade Brown would look more at home in the Old Soviet Union as the political commissar reading out the latest Soviet tractor production figures (doublecounted and spun of course).
May I ask why Mr Darling used percentages of GDP when referring to borrowing and other numbers that would look bad, but used actual numbers when referring to increases?
Also: pointing out the cut in defence spending - I mean wasn't that the time of the end of the cold war, fall of Berlin wall and the 'Peace Dividend'.
And as for IHT - you've walked straight into it haven't you. Mr Darling announced purely an easier way of transferring assets between generations - the total tax benefit change is NIL.
Compare that to the Tory's offer of £1M per person. Using the same tactics as today the amount that can be transferred is not £1 but £2 million - with a potential net benefit of £560,000 (40% of (£2,000,000 - £600,000) if their plans are implemented.
Cynical manipulation of statistics for party politcal ends - and the Â鶹¹ÙÍøÊ×Ò³Èë¿Ú have falle (willingly or unwittingly) into it.
I suggest you amend your blog to truely reflect these decreases in increased spending, increased taxes and spinning by Oh My Darling! etc etc
This is seriously spooky! Does the chancellor read your blog? If I were you I would check my office for bugs.
Still give credit where it is due - masterful performance!! A big improvement on his earlier role as staff officer in Blackadder Goes Forth.
Concerning inheritance tax - is this perhaps the best time to claim to be Sir Paul McCartney's love child?
Love the blog!
btw George - Yup kids only allowed to comment but not if hooded and over-use nouns like RESPECT and FAUX PAS!
The IHT is a con trick.
A married couple each have a £300,000 allowance now, and you don't need a trust to get it, it's simple. So the £600,000 is no-change for many people.
I' m shocked and disgusted by this apology for a government. At least Tony and Ali C spun cleverly and with charm. This lot are untrustworthy, cynical, smug and alarmingly bereft of ideas or judgment.
I do not see how this unelected PM has a mandate. If he has a new "vision", how is this different from a "manifesto"? That's something put to the people in a democracy, lest we forget.
On the other hand, his "vision" seems to be to steal the fresh ideas from the Conservative and Liberals. How can this possibly be governing by democratic mandate?
I always suspected the PM of hardball spin and bullying. But the untrustworthiness and appalling judgment is sleazy and beyond parody. He stabbed Blair in the back, to what end? To trick and spin the rest of us, it seems. How depressing. This mediocre lot are going to cling to office, obsessed only with saving their own skins.
We are not all fools - bring on an election and give us all a say!
i read someone thinking if many comments were made by children.
no, not children, probably just the spinsters for labour
Am I being very stupid? Why is nobody addressing the problem which children of single (divorced) people like me will face when we die - namely that this government thinks we should only be allowed to leave £300,000 free of inheritance to our children? I am of an age where we bought our first house in 1975 when prices were low (it was £6250!). Now my fairly modest 3 bed detached is worth £320000. Heaven knows what it may have gone up to by the time I pop my clogs. Why should my children be clobbered again when money has been tight all through their lives and both are beginning adult life with university debts of £12 - 16K?
Are there any socialists left in the parliamentary Labour party? First they double the rate for the lowest threshold of tax, affecting the poorest in society, and now they follow the Conservative lead with inheritance tax. All of this was achieved with very little noise from the back benches. Surely now anyone with socialist ideals must look to another party, such as the Lib Dems. It is no longer tenable to be a socialist and a Labour party supporter.
I am voting for the real thing next time.
THERE IS NO CHANGE IN INHERITANCE TAX
FOR MARRIED COUPLES WITH SEPARATE WILLS
UNDER EXISTING LEGISLATION
Nick,
Now that New Labour is using the Opposition Parties to come up with their Fiscal Policies and Policies of Change, I think it will be legitimate for the Tories and Liberal Democrats to plant rumours about their respective manifestos they are planning for the General Election.
The Opposition Parties could start with a pledge to a abolish Council Tax. Another that will go down well with Pensioners would be repaying the Billions that Gordon stole from the Pension Funds. Another, State Pensions could be linked to Earnings +4% when they get into Power. All this would be funded by scrapping ID cards, withdrawing from Iraq, withdrawing from Afghanistan and cancelling the replacement for Trident and their complement of Nuclear Missiles. Etc etc.
I'm sure Gordon and Darling will jump at the ideas, without fully costing them, to regain the Political High Ground.
Well one can dream.
The whole Nation will then vote New Labour and Gordon will be the longest serving Prime Minister ever.
OOOOOOOOOOOOps
Horror of Horrors. That dream didn’t end as it should; definitely not!!!
On a serious note, can’t you find out, using the Freedom of Information Act, when Darling agreed to the Inheritance Tax Increase he announced today?
Nick. You are being too kind to Gordon over domicile. His review was announced at Budget 2002 (EFSR 5.83). And at Budget 2005 he promised that the review would be "be taken forward by the publication of a consultation paper setting out possible approaches to reform" (EFSR 5.116). However he has now announced, via his new Chancellor, that the review has been completed without the promised consultation. Just like his promise to hold a referendum on the EU treaty - not worth the paper on which it was printed!
Never have I been so ashamed of my Government as I am of this lot.
Alistair Darling reads Gordon Brown treasury statement ,as proposed by the Tory and Liberal opposition and Andy burnham the Treasury's current "motormouth" says "Let's be absolutely clear what this means".Gordon,Alistair and their team have been discussing these proposals for months and reached the pronounced conclusions without the aid of "fairies","goblins" or Hobbits".
Gordon Brown sits giggling on the front bench repeating under his breath,"Who's a clever boy"
Meanwhile we are going "Another day older and deeper in Debt".
Carry on Nick
Good to see some intelligent robust analysis of this New Labour shower
... Brown's Boomerang clattered home last week
vikingar
I've just heard AD saying that the Inheritance Tax limit is set so that it only affects 1% of the population. Can someone explain to me how this is a moral position? Either it is a fair tax or it isn't - merely setting it at a level to shaft a minority doesn't make it right, it just minimises the complaints:take ratio.
On the 6 O'Clock News 09/10/2007 Evan Davis mentioned that in Gordon Browns Budget March 2007 an anomaly occurred with regard to Pensioners taxation. It seems that the pensioners receiving a lower pension (I think he mentioned 12,000.00GBP)would pay more in future years, and pensioners on higher incomes would pay less.
He hoped that Alistair Darling would correct this, but he did not.
Can anyone enlighten me as to what this is about?
Yes the Tories were fools to imagine that they could raise £3.5 billion from their imagined annual Poll Tax on non domicile high earners.
Evasion and avoidance are easier with such high notice (the Tories might be in government in 2200, but touch wood!).
Many of those who already pay tax on their icoems here in their own countries would vote with their feet. And the numbers who are here in unclear.
Just the sort of nonsense which the Treasury loathes, uncostable and unpredictable.
Whe it was set up with a massive giveaway to the richest inheritors I shoud think the mandarins must have bent Gordon's ear re the imaginary election until it turned red.
Sum time folks and kiddies.
Tory proposal: extend the lower limmit for Death Duties to £1,000,000.
Labour Proposal: extend the lower individual limmit for Death Duties to £300,000 and the joint one to £600,000.
Allow this to be done retrospectively for widows and widowers (over a 10 year period I think?).
Current situation: Lower limit £300,000, but if a couple pay a solicitor to fix it thsi is eeffctively £600,000.
Now some of the best of you arithmeticians may see that there are significant differences in these situations.
Even remember that the law on this has been changed 10 times in the past ten years, so another change proposed in the prebudget review was almost odds on, especially in view of the endless earache HMG gets from the poorer quality extreme right wing press and its respectable readership.
Best close your eyes and call for nurse!