Daily View: Labour's by-election victory
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Commentators discuss Labour's win in the Oldham East Saddleworth by-election
where the voters switched from and to:
"Broadly about two thirds of the Tory losses went to the yellows. That's a lot but it's not everything. As can be seen as well the Tories losses were partly off-set by small gains from the other two main parties.
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"The bulk of the Lib Dem losses went to Labour but not, by any means all. And the yellows benefited by a small group of Labour general election voters switching."
Nick Clegg shouldn't worry about the defeat:
"Clegg-ism is still a work in progress. Time, though, is on his side. He has four years to make and win these arguments. And he understands how bad policies equal bad politics in the long run. Tuition fees hurt Clegg last year and Ed Miliband's opportunist approach may hurt him at the next election. As the Tories discovered after 1997, short-term policies are great for tomorrow's papers, but can destroy your credibility over a parliament. If Clegg takes care to remember he is running a marathon, not a sprint, then the third party may prove its worth."
that the loss may actually bolster the Lib Dems' position in the coalition:
"[I]t is rather more probable that the larger party will offer further policy concessions. It will do this in the hope of bolstering its partner's popular support without at the same time eating into that of its larger partner or provoking an unmanageable backlash in its own ranks. This is precisely the context of the current UK arguments on control orders and bankers' bonuses."
the Tories' 14% drop in votes:
"[T]his is unlikely to placate those who suspected the party was actively pushing down its vote in Oldham, in deference to the Lib Dems."
that the result sends a warning to the coalition:
"We must be wary of drawing too many conclusions from a single by-election. Over-all, it is very positive for Labour. Not only are there signs of a swing towards them, but a spotlight has been cast on the difficulties that will face the two coalition parties come the general election."
that victory has bought the Labour leadership time and suggests how they should use it:
"The space created by winning Oldham East and Saddleworth should be used to neutralise the deficit as an issue and move the debate onto new ground. Much of the current Labour leadership were senior advisers in the 1990s. They were part of an opposition machine that minced the Tories. They saw first hand what worked.
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"Success was based on two simple rules:
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"First, the opposition sticks to the government's spending plans. Period.
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"The logic behind this rule was that back then we were suffering from a lack of credibility. We were in opposition because voters had already made a deliberate choice to reject us."
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