Election speculating
So what do you reckon? Do you think that Gordon Brown will call a UK General Election in the autumn, perhaps in October?
I only ask because of a certain twitchiness in the body politic which is displaying unwarranted signs of life for these dog days of August. Today, for example, we learn that the SNP are accelerating their candidate selection process, in order to be ready.
By habit and repute, these are the days when politicians top up their tan, dispelling their more customary pallid sheen. (For those, that is, who do not resort to purchasing an orange glow from sunbed establishments in our major cities.)
These are the days, too, when MPs and MSPs can reassure their constituencies of their supreme importance, free from the troublesome requirement to add yet more to the statute book.
It should be a period of calm and steady reflection. But all is not as it should be. We have a new Prime Minister. In Scotland, we have a new First Minister.
(We may soon have a new Labour leader in Scotland but more of that another day.)
Further, our politicians have become accustomed to virtually permanent election mode. They fret, they twitter, if they are not either drawing up a manifesto, dissing their opponents (including those from other parties) or massaging opinion polls.
However, there is also substantive reasoning underlying this election speculation. Gordon Brown would like his own mandate to replace the one inherited from Tony Blair.
He will call a General Election at the precise moment when he believes that consummation can be achieved. The Tories would appear to be struggling at the moment, with contrary opinion polls and still more contrary comments from the odd (occasionally, very odd) grandee about David Cameron’s strategy, or lack thereof.
Hence the speculation about October. Hence the decision by SNP strategists to order the acceleration of their candidate selection programme: a process made more cumbersome by the need to deal with different Westminster and Holyrood constituency boundaries. Nationalists, as you would expect, are organised along Holyrood lines.
So what do you reckon? Here’s my pitch. I do not believe that Gordon Brown has waited more than a decade in order to risk the Premiership so quickly.
I believe he will want to discover whether the Cameron travails are transient or entrenched. I believe he will want more stability in Britain’s military commitments, if such a thing is readily achievable.
In Scotland, I believe he will want to steady the Labour ship and to get a clear assessment of SNP minority rule at Holyrood whose influence would inevitably spill over into a Westminster contest.
Will there be a UK General Election in October? I say no. What do you say?
I'm 
Comments
I say yes; the last thursday of October 2007.
GB is unlikely to command such a poll lead again, barring some national disaster. He'd like to get an election out of the way, giving him a clear 4 or 5 years to push through his own agenda, including divisive issues such as nuclear power.
There's also much evidence on various blogs and forums of activists from several political parties in election mode. In some Scottish political forums, it's just like the last week of April 07 all over again.
I think he will wait until a new Tory leader has been appointed. Cameron is tasteless, colourless and odourless and his party want the opposite. If the Tories run true to form this will be a very right wing candidate and therefore un-electable.
I have to say I would be astonished if an election were called for October.
I don't, however, believe we'll be waiting until 2009 for a General Election. My money is on May 2008. If the Tories continue to poll poorly it may be too much of a tempation for the Prime Minister to resist.
I think that Brown will not yet have made up his mind - and will wait to see if Cameron has a bad August and a bad party conference. Waiting is just as risky for his desired Brown premiership as going now - he wants to be in number 10 for more than 3 years. Also, I think that Brown would get a lot of credit in the country for going for a personal mandate. A final thought - the current market volatility may represent a turning point in the economy, so an early election before things turn decisively down may seem like a good idea to a man who was very recently our Chancellor.
It wouldn't be Brown's style to rush into an election even if he has had a bounce in the polls. It would make more sense for him to set out his agenda and let people have more than just a few weeks to judge him on being Prime Minister (despite the fact that people already have judged him, for good or bad, on his ten years as Chancellor).
As for the Scottish perspective, he is in a similar position to Alex Salmond in that both have hit the ground running and left their respective oppositions floundering.
Scottish Labour and Lib Dems are both looking for new leaders (Labour officially and still unsure who they want / Lib Dems off the record and already have a shoo-in in Tavish Scott). Cameron is in all sorts of trouble south of the Border and Menzies Campbell's weeks have all sorts of ups and downs.
It seems that after months of political excitement, most people are after a bit of calm.
As for me, if there is to be an election, I would rather it were in October as I'm a student activist and would rather avoid an election before exams in May/June...
As ever Brian talks (mostly) a lot of sense. I agree an October election may look unlikely, the fact that Brown has waiting ten long years may just about be sufficient reason in itself for him to push for his own mandate sooner rather than later. Wouldn't you if you had the power to name the day when British troops will leave Iraq - even if it is a long way off - and the wheels are slowly coming off the Boy David's wagon just as they have every Tory leader since Major left.
Simply no.
None of the parties can afford it - either politically or economically - especially Labour who spent their entire Scottish war-chest to end up in opposition at Holyrood.
Plus, Brian is right. Big Gordon has just got his fingers round the brass ring. Why risk handing it away so soon?
But... wouldn't it be more interesting if Cameron was PM? With Salmond as FM... surely more constitutional debate? Thoughts?
Agreed. As well as the points mentioned I'd add that the SNP or, more accurately the First Minister, has had a fairly positive start. I can only see the SNP building on the last election result. Broon will want to wait as long as possible for a slip up! I hope he's disappointed...
I agree. No, there won't. I suspect, perhaps, a May 2008 or October 2008 election. Nothing this year though.
Why would Gordon Brown want to go into the costly and difficult business of an election just now? He's doing well in the polls, yes, but he hasn't had time to 'bed in' and deliver the substance he would be able to rely on in a campaign.
To those who demand an election because of the change in PM I only reiterate the fact - as you have pointed out before, Brian - that Eden, Douglas-Home, Callaghan and Major didn't call a snap election when they succeeded to the office of PM, so why should Mr Brown?
I for one think that autumn elections ended permanently in October 1974.
I think the Labour Party finds itself in a difficult situation in Scotland. In part it must oppose the SNP in order to prevent the parochial and the sentimental playing even a small part in the business of running a country. However, it must prepare for a tory election victory in the UK somewhere down the line. So I think a tacit behind the scenes preperation for this would be to indulge Salmond and let him increase the powers of holyrood. Remember we must never let Thatcher happen again.
I do not think that Brown would an election called in October because of the recent floods, and should therefore wait. I do not think that dissaray in the conservative ranks interests anyone in particular except the political press, not the median point in the Political vote distribution.
In face of political dissatisfaction there is only one choice, for those down south to do the unspeakable, and vote conservative. He should fear this prevailing protest vote, which has little to do with actual policy.
he must wait and let Cameron reveal himself as an Aristocrat and to reveal himseld as a man of the people. Whether the royalist English would prefer an Aristocrat or a man of the people is a whole different question.
Let's hope not - I'm not sure Scotland could cope with more bits of paper to put their mark upon just yet!
I don't think Gordon Brown will call an early election, apart from not wanting to risk losing, it would smack of pragmatism for such a wary and cautious politician. I don't think 'putting the boot' into Cameron when he is down is Brown's style either. I agree with Brian, he will wait until his premiership foundations have settled before building on this with an election campaign.
I say bring it on, frankly. Labour are on a hiding in Scotland, given the start made by the SNP in Government.
I say "no".
The longer an SNP Executive has to make a hash of things in Scotland, the better for Gordon Brown.
Give 'em enough legislative rope...
I think an election in October is too soon, Brown needs more water between himself and Blair, time too to show us all WHO he is as Prime Minister. I believe Labour in Scotland has to sort itself out before an election, which may take some time yet. SNP strategists are clearly gearing up, wonder what the Tories and Lib Dems are thinking, it seems to me all of them will need to look at leadership.
Welcome back Braces,sorry, Brian.
I agree,no election this year. Canny Geordie will want to suss things out a wee while longer,just in case the polls have it wrong again.Especialy in Scotland he wouldn`t want to move too quickly after seeing the result of the SNP at the last election.,although there was a move towards the SNP I don`t believe it would happen again,BUT,you never know. I think G.B. will wait to see how A.S.and his policies pan out.
England no longer runs the U.K.,Scotland holds the trump card.{and i don`t mean Donald from across the water}.
I`m a Scot thru and thru and truly believe that if we went independent we`d manage without England but they would sink without us and the Welsh.
Quite agree Brain. As has been stated elsewhere, a snap general election would result in an extremely good showing for the SNP, the last thing that GB need in his own back yard.
Brian
I agree with you that October is unlikely. Brown will want to make absolutlely sure that he is going to win before he goes to the country.
Given that:
1] there is a European Parliament election fixed for June 2009
2] the current Scottish Parliament runs until May 2011
3] he doesn`t have to go until May 2010...
I reckon May 2009 is the most likely date, all things being equal. That way he isn`t boxed in with every PMQs being "When`s the election?" and it will avoid the need to discuss the troublesome issue of Europe.
That`s the tactic I reckon he`ll employ, unless things deteriorate in Iraq/Afghanistan and the Tories/SNP start to score some direct hits.
Bryan
Brian,
I think you are right. Brown has had a reasonably good start and Blair is rapidly fading into the background - although the legacy will be with us for years.
As far as Scotland is concerned, I am sure Brown will wait until he sees how the SNP minority is shaping up, they have had an easy 100 days or so. Wait till they have made a few big mistakes or until the electorate realises they are nothing without Alex Salmond (has he given up his Westminster seat yet? If not, I wonder why).
In addition, Brown will have to deal with the Scottish Labour party to clear out those responsible for the May 2007 defeat. October 2007 may be too early.
One of the attributes most commonly associated with Scots is ‘canny’, although most commonly this is incorrectly applied in reference to monetary issues.
Brown is a canny Scot, I feel he will need more reliable and consistent indicators before he goes to the country; these indicators will be bipolar, greater improvement and consistency in his and the Labour Party’s standing in the polls in parallel with more apparent damage to David Cameron, more inter party squabbling and consistently poor results in the polls.
The honour for financial canniness clearly belongs without fear of challenge to those in the South West of England who in comparison make Harry Lauder seem a leading philanthropist rather than the persona he chose to create for himself.
I think Autumn 2007 will be too soon for an adequate amount of indictors to be registered to please Gordon Brown; at present even Spring 2008 seems too soon, however there may be enough satisfactory moves in the polls to make Spring 2008 the favoured date.
Brian wrote;
So what do you reckon? Here’s my pitch. I do not believe that Gordon Brown has waited more than a decade in order to risk the Premiership so quickly.
In reply;
If the term "Not a Snowflake's chance in hell" means anything Nu labour will not be upbeat about the Conservative leader's problems. Their eye will be firmly focussed on the SNP and in particular the new Scottish government's opposition to the upheaval and soaring costs of Trams in Edinburgh! If things go well Brown will be able to criticize the SNP for their opposition to the plan but things look very bleak for a Labour return to power in Scotland whether it be under Wendy Alexander or any other leader wrapped in a Union flag. It is very interesting to note that even the"Scottish Tories are now calling for the Scottish Coronation stone to be taken back to Scone palace, and some Lib-Dems want a referendum on independence. What is going on in Scottish politics?
I do not know when there will be a general election but I would like one soon. UK voters need an opportunity to be heard and the PM needs a mandate to move onwards from the Blair era. If there is an election soon I hope Labour win with a small majority. Whatever happens, in Scotland, New Labour has problems and McConnell should go sooner rather than later.
I recon calling a snap election may be his only chance, he himself knows that the wheels are about to fall off the economy. Knowing that he was the man in charge of the purse strings that over the last ten years, the people will blame him and he wont stand a chance of being elected.
Wasnt it Gordon who caused the whole pensions fiasco, not one person in this country has been unaffected by that. So long final salary pension, most companies no longer offer this.