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Silencing the analysts

Brian Taylor | 11:09 UK time, Friday, 24 October 2008

Oh, and, by the way, the economy shrank last quarter.

Doesn't it almost seem like an afterthought after the months of agonising over the economic crisis?

Indeed, The Guardian greeted Gordon Brown's concession that Britain was heading for recession with a cartoon depicting the PM on the doorstep of Number 10 with an exceptionally large bear, forecasting a certain degree of ursine detritus in the woods.

But this is it, just the same. This is when and how the real economy of jobs, mortgages, savings and pensions starts to suffer.

Recession is defined as two successive quarters with declining GDP. After the first quarterly fall-back in 16 years, anyone care to bet that we won't be there when the next figures are published?

In Scotland, it would appear that Alex Salmond may comfortably meet his target of matching average UK growth - but not, perhaps, in the manner he envisaged.

The question now is how long and how deep the recession will be.

Few, I suspect, have any real idea about that, given the link to volatile, indeed manic, global markets.

For myself, I am growing increasingly irritated by delphic comments from analysts who didn't forecast the downturn, didn't highlight the internal problems within the banking sector and didn't urge redress.

To quote Attlee, dealing with a pestilential party chairman, "a period of silence would be welcome".

On the subject of mortgages, it would appear that Labour has scored something approaching a palpable hit with its orchestrated onslaught against SNP ministers.

You'll recall that Labour accused the Scottish Government of "complacency" for declining to replicate a system introduced in England designed to make repossession less likely.

Mr Salmond has now said he will look at the already-reformed Scottish system to discern whether there are any gaps.

To be fair, ministers insist that was their position all along.

The English system doesn't simply translate to Scotland: different legal system. Rather, expect ministers here to focus on efforts to keep such matters out of the courts in the first place.

Expect initiatives - already in the pipeline - to enhance the availability of schemes which allow those in financial trouble to transfer mortgages to rents or to shared equity.

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