Swine flu deaths: Estimates scaled down
You'll remember the headlines from last month suggesting that up to 65,000 people could die from H1N1 swine flu.
At the time I tried to put the figures in context and point out that this was not a true estimate of deaths but a worst-case planning scenario for the NHS which was extremely unlikely.
Now , based on new scientific advice. The 65,000 figure assumed a mortality of 0.35% or three and a half in every 1,000 people infected, and that 30% of the UK population would get infected.
The lower estimate of 0.1% mortality is now being used which gives a potential death toll of 19,000 if 30% were to get the virus.
But even this figure could be an over-estimate. So far, there have been 70 deaths linked to the virus in the UK but hundreds of thousands of people have already been infected.
So unless the virus changes its behaviour then the death toll will hopefully be much lower.
Swine flu vaccine
Meanwhile, . A study of 100 healthy adults in Leicester found that the vaccine produced a strong immune response with few apparent side effects apart from a sore arm.
The trial was carried out by the University of Leicester and Leicester Hospitals.
One of the scientists involved, Dr Iain Stephenson said:
"Results showed that the serum antibody responses were highest among subjects who received two doses of vaccine, however a single vaccine dose also induced responses associated with protection against influenza."
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