The Sarkozy enigma
A slap for the president. A warning note delivered to the Elysee Palace. That is how the results in France's regional elections are being interpreted. President Nicolas Sarkozy's party has fallen behind the Socialists. Some of his supporters sat on their hands. The turnout may well have been the lowest in French history. The second round will be held next weekend.
Even before the votes were cast, Mr Sarkozy had dismissed the results. "The vote... is a regional one, its ramifications are therefore regional," he said. On reflection, Mr Sarkozy said he would be "attentive" to the result.
The Socialists, of course, see it differently. The result, in their view, has changed the political landscape. It was the last poll before the presidential election in 2012 and the momentum is with them.
These are, however, mid-term elections when parties in power traditionally get a kicking. The president's poll ratings are at their lowest since 2007.
So do these results tell us anything as the West struggles to shrug off the grip of recession? Perhaps.
It is too soon to talk to a drift to the left in Europe as voters react to the fall-out from the banking crisis. In Germany the centre-right retained power. And yet the Socialist leader in France, Martine Aubry, detected a yearning for a social model that the downturn threatens. "We want to be reunited," she said, "with a society that is caring, fair, and where people can live together".
The view from France is that the voters are weary, disengaged, anxious and mistrustful of politicians. They are not so much angry but fretful about their jobs, their pensions and their way of life.
In politics, this is not a time for rhetoric. The public just won't buy into it. . He pledged to turn France into an economic powerhouse. Reforms tumbled from him.
He has been a leader in perpetual motion. A modern politician who defied easy labels. He was from the right, but invited left-wingers into his cabinet. He promised to slash public spending, but has . He worries about and speaks out for a "moral capitalism".
He still bristles with ideas and yet he seems to sense the public are not with him. Last week, he called for a "pause" in his own reform agenda. He even suggested that Parliament could "de-legislate" if it wants to.
Political space is being defined and filled by the recession. France has had an easier time than others. Yet unemployment is at 10%. The deficit is 8.2% of GDP, lower than many other countries, but will still have to be pruned.
Perhaps this is the moment for the fixers, the hole-pluggers, the deficit managers. Even US President Barack Obama shed his rhetoric soon after getting into the White House. He fell back on the auto-prompter. Vision got him into 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, but downturns seem to be a time for serious, lower-key politics.
In Europe, there are big, fundamental challenges that leaders are struggling to address. Some officials are talking of a threat to the "European Way of Life". Without 2% growth, Europe faces years of relative decline. And no-one is predicting that anytime soon.
Countries are having to slash public spending to pay their debts. Will the crisis force a rethink of the welfare programmes that have been a hallmark of Europe's social contract? How will Europe compete with emerging markets that are nimble and dynamic? Will Europe have to sacrifice some of its social programmes to be competitive? How will Europe get its 24 million jobless back to work? The answers are set to define politics in the future.
In France, these were just regional elections and local issues played their part, but some analysts detect an insecurity, an awareness that a cherished "way of life" cannot be guaranteed. Martine Aubry said "we do not want a policy that is destroying what France holds dearest - the social welfare model, equality and fraternity." That is the pitch that we are likely to hear time and again in Europe - that the recession threatens something fundamental which must be protected.
Of course, the voters are still intrigued by the theatre of public life. Mr Sarkozy may have bridled this week at questions about his marriage to Carla Bruni, but he also revels in the glamour of power. You sense he can't wait to get to Washington later this month where he and Carla, and Barack and Michelle will spend some informal time together.
Yet back at home, two out of three French voters say they don't trust their president. It may just be that the public sense these are times which don't lend themselves to the dazzling, the frenetic, the blaze of activity.
I'm 
Comments
or to comment.