Europe prepares to protest
I am in Spain, where unions are calling their first general strike in eight years. They oppose the wage cuts, the increase in the retirement age and the new labour laws that make it easier to hire and fire workers.
As Ignacio Fernandez Toxo, leader of the CCOO union put it in an interview with El Pais, "above all else the strike is about the prevention of new changes that affect the nucleus of the social protection systems". And John Monks, General Secretary of said "it's a fight to protect social Europe".
If that is the case, then this is a struggle for the future of Europe. Many argue that Europe will only be able to compete effectively in the global economy when it weakens its generous system of welfare.
It is unclear in Spain what support there will be for a general strike. For a start the impact is limited by laws that ensure unions maintain a minimum service. So up to 30% of local trains will be running at rush hour. And 40% of international flights will be flying.
But there is also great scepticism about the strike. Earlier today I was outside an unemployment benefit office in Madrid. It opened at 9.00 am but by 8.30 nearly 200 people were waiting in line. All ages were represented there. What struck me was how well-qualified many of them were. There was the young man studying art history; the actress; the tourism executive.
Many had sympathy with the strike, but none of them could see how the protest would change anything for the better. Many believe that Spain has to change, but there is a strong air of resignation.
When they find work it is often temporary, with poor wages. Over 40% of those aged between 16 and 24 are without work. Many others survive through the generosity of their families. The papers reported today that more than half of Spaniards in their thirties were not financially independent. Most of them live at home. It is a similar story in Greece and Italy.
(It is also the case that a significant number of young people have given up searching for work. They are called ninis; neither in work nor in study. They live off their parents and are referred to as a lost generation.)
But the pressure has lifted a little on Spain. The financial markets like its austerity package, its commitment to reduce spending further next year and the stress tests which removed doubts about the health of its banks. It is no longer on the critical list like the Republic of Ireland, Greece and Portugal.
But what will be the longer-term judgement of a lost generation? Will they remain passive and resigned? Hundreds of young Spanish people are emigrating. Emigration has returned to Ireland and a group of very smart Greek young people told me they had their sights on London, New York or wherever.
Many, of course, neither can nor want to leave. What will be the political fall-out of the years of austerity? Will some see this period as the price of staying in the single currency? Spain used the low inflation of the euro's early years to rack up debts. It is now committed to increasing competitiveness, in order to meet the strategic reforms that membership of the eurozone requires.
On Wednesday we should get some idea of how determined Europe's workers are to fight the cuts. But as the Spanish prime minister said recently, high unemployment in itself may trigger a crisis of confidence in Europe.
Note: An earlier version of this post contained projections on eurozone growth, which have been removed at the request of the consultancy which provided them.
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