Â鶹¹ÙÍøÊ×Ò³Èë¿Ú

Â鶹¹ÙÍøÊ×Ò³Èë¿Ú BLOGS - The Devenport Diaries
« Previous | Main | Next »

The vanishing opposition

Mark Devenport | 15:46 UK time, Tuesday, 22 January 2008

With both Michael McGimpsey and Margaret Ritchie pronouncing themselves satisfied with their latest allocations from the Finance Minister Peter Robinson, Stormont is suffering a serious outbreak of sweetness and light. Okay some UUP backbenchers are calling for Iris Robinson to resign as Health Committee chair, and the party is withholding its position on water charges, but in general terms it's hard to see the Ulster Unionists blocking this budget after Minister McGimpsey (is he the Jack Nicholson of the Executive?) has pronounced this "As Good As It Gets".

Having just come off air on Stormont Live I have been asked by the main news website to write a budget analysis. Anyone au fait with my knowledge of finance will know that this task has all the promising prospects of a US sub prime mortgage. But I shall do my best, and post the analysis in the extended entry once I have it finished.

For now, although nothing can be totally taken for granted, it feels like the talk of an "opposition within" may recede for a while. When the programme for government and budget come to a decision next week the only votes certain to be negative are Alliance ones.

After 12 weeks of civil war in the Stormont executive, Peter Robinson's final budget felt like the start of a January truce. Given the inevitable tensions within the four party coalition, nothing can be taken for granted. But with the SDLP Social Development Minister Margaret Ritchie beaming about the cash she has received for housing, and the Ulster Unionist Health Minister Michael McGimpsey pronouncing the settlement "As Good As It Gets", it is hard to see either of their parties endeavouring to stop this budget in its tracks.

When Peter Robinson announced his draft budget in October he pleased ratepayers with a freeze on the domestic rates, and won plaudits from business leaders for his emphasis on the need to turn Northern Ireland into an innovative entrepreneurial economy rather than an area reliant on the public sector.

But the two smaller partners in the Stormont coalition were left underwhelmed. Michael McGimpsey called his allocation "a stand still budget", whilst Margaret Ritchie expressed concern about what she described as the "significant challenges" which it posed for her department.

This final budget had addressed those concerns. Margaret Ritchie is a clear winner with £205 million extra over 3 years. This should enable her to build 5250 new affordable homes over that period. Although the draft budget contained £700 million the minister says that none of this was for affordable housing, so the extra money will be vital if she is to meet her new target.

The local Construction Employers Federation reckons that, given the signs of a plateau in the private housing market the minister will have no difficulties finding the builders to do the job. What may be more challenging could be the business of coordinating housing associations and other partners to reach the increased targets.

Analysing the new money for health is more difficult. Speaking in the Assembly in November, Minister McGimpsey talked about the local health service being underfunded by £300 million compared to England. He added that the draft budget would leave a £600 million funding gap in three years time.

Health officials say the gap remains, but the final budget should enable the minister to achieve much more in terms of mental health provision, cervical and breast cancer screening and other urgent health requirements.

Interviewed for the Â鶹¹ÙÍøÊ×Ò³Èë¿Ú's "Stormont Live", Minister McGimpsey reckoned the final budget gives him £150 million more over the next three years. He broke this down into £30 million extra revenue, £60 million in guaranteed funds from money not spent by other departments which is usually allocated during the year and the flexibility to re-use his own savings within the health department which the minister believes is worth another £60 million.

However if you talk to other parties they are not convinced, pointing out for example that health would normally get its share of money reallocated from other departments during the year, so this cash can hardly be counted as new. Also they point out the Health Department's flexibility only kicks in after it has made the 3% efficiency saving required of all departments. According to these calculations, the fresh money, even including £13 million for health innovations and £14 million for the fire service, amounts to a total of only £57 million extra over three years.

So have the Ulster Unionists got a good deal or are they making the best of a bad job? Expect to hear more of this as UUP and DUP backbenchers continue to cross swords over health.

One other area we heard more about today was money for innovation. Peter Robinson has distributed a total of £90 million coming from London, Dublin and the local budget. It's spread across many departments, but the Employment Minister and UUP leader Sir Reg Empey gets a big chunk - £40 million - which is due to be spent on science research and projects involving universities north and south.

As the details are debated, the coalition partners will no doubt disagree on some points - the Ulster Unionists, for example, are signalling their concerns over the plans to fund the water service. But we have moved forward from the November night when Peter Robinson threatened that, if the parties could not agree a programme for government then there would be no government. With all the ministers signing off on this final budget, for now it looks like the Stormont show is still on the road.

°ä´Ç³¾³¾±ð²Ô³Ù²õÌýÌý Post your comment

  • 1.
  • At 06:31 PM on 22 Jan 2008,
  • Kevin wrote:

5,000 affordable houses, we're told. I wonder just what obscene proportion of this is going to Belfast and the clustering towns therein?

  • 2.
  • At 10:34 PM on 22 Jan 2008,
  • Martin wrote:

I am glad to see that for once all the executive members agree. I think praise for this budget should not go to Peter Robinson but to his team of overpaid civil servants for getting this right. At a stage when the civil service is becoming increasingly incompetent and a waste of tax payer’s money they have pulled this off with a budget that seems to suit everyone. I suppose we should maybe praise Peter Robinson for delivering this budget before he gets upset and cries..... It is interesting to note that Dublin is giving us £42 million over three years. There was a time when the DUP leader to be never took a penny from Dublin. There was also a time when all parties disagreed and fought. How times have changed.

Is there something missing here Mark?

Let's see:

...pronouncing themselves "pacified"...?...."put in their place"...?...or was it "out maneuvered"?

Do let us know Mark.

MARK REPLIES: Well spotted Peter. It should have been "satisfied", which I have now added in. I hope you are now satisfied!

This post is closed to new comments.

Â鶹¹ÙÍøÊ×Ò³Èë¿Ú iD

Â鶹¹ÙÍøÊ×Ò³Èë¿Ú navigation

Â鶹¹ÙÍøÊ×Ò³Èë¿Ú © 2014 The Â鶹¹ÙÍøÊ×Ò³Èë¿Ú is not responsible for the content of external sites. Read more.

This page is best viewed in an up-to-date web browser with style sheets (CSS) enabled. While you will be able to view the content of this page in your current browser, you will not be able to get the full visual experience. Please consider upgrading your browser software or enabling style sheets (CSS) if you are able to do so.