Contriving an election?
With the deadlock continuing, the chat in the corridors this morning was all about the possibility of an election. It's hard to know whether this is for real. It's in Sinn Fein's interests to allow rumours to spread about an election, as proof they are not bluffing. Equally the DUP has to give the impression it is unconcerned about the prospect.
But what if we were to go to the polls? Would SF devastate the SDLP in the way they did in the Enniskillen council by-election? If so could the SDLP be removed altogether from the Executive (currently the threshold is 10 seats, although in the last Assembly it was only 8 seats)? Or would nationalist voters punish republicans for the months of gridlock?
How many seats might Jim Allister's TUV win? Would the DUP's position as largest party be under any serious threat because of a TUV-UUP pincer movement?
On Inside Politics, Sir Reg Empey touched on this last question when he talked about the mistakes he believed had been made in drawing up the titles for the First and Deputy First Minister.
Under the St. Andrews' Act the largest party has the right to nominate the First Minister, irrespective of whether they belong to the largest designation. But if SF could nominate a First Minister, would unionists agree to serve as Deputy?
Would the DUP and SF push to be the largest party cut more ice with their voters than any arguments over who was responsible for the gridlock of recent months?
Lots of questions there, but we are in "what if" territory. Shaun Woodward may not let things to run so far. But gird your loins, just in case.
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