The word from the Kings Hall
I've spent the day up at the Kings' Hall in South Belfast where election workers have been verifying the papers from 1600 ballot boxes. Party officials are keeping a close eye on the proceedings, and although the count proper doesn't begin until Monday morning the glances they get at the papers today provide them with a decent guesstimate of how things might go on Monday.
So far the turnout looks to be the lowest in recent times, probably around 42%. Although an official overall turnout figure won't be calculated until eight o'clock this evening, figures for individual constituencies range from Martin McGuinness's Mid Ulster, the highest so far at nearly 53% down to Iris Robinson's Strangford, the lowest at just over 34%.
It looks like the Sinn Fein candidate, Bairbre De Brun is on course to top the poll comfortably with perhaps as much as 28% of the vote. The three unionist candidates appear to be tightly packed, which means the Traditional Unionist Jim Allister must have taken a significant percentage of the DUP vote. So far the Conservatives and Unionists appear to be optimistic that Jim Nicholson's vote has held up, but with such a tight field it's impossible to say at this stage how the count will pan out so far as the last two seats are concerned.
DUP sources acknowledge that a final debate on the Â鶹¹ÙÍøÊ×Ò³Èë¿Ú's Politics Show did not go well for their candidate Diane Dodds, but they put down the low turnout in many areas to antipathy with politics and the Westminster expenses saga.
The SDLP looks to have polled well in some urban areas like South and North Belfast but less well in some rural areas like Mid Ulster. It's too early to say whether they stand a realistic chance of grabbing the third and final seat. Maybe its a mathematical possibility but I'd be very surprised if it happens.
The seven candidates, however, won't know their fate for certain until Monday when the party votes will be counted. The Kings Hall count has been delayed until then partly in order to allow all the other EU member states to complete their voting and partly as a nod to any sabbatarian instincts amongst the politicians and election workers. This will mean that Northern Ireland will be the last region in the UK to announce a result.
So far these are the official turnout figures for 12 constituencies
East Belfast 38.82%
North Belfast 40.98%
East Antrim 34.53%
North Down 34.48%
South Antrim 38.03%
Strangford 34.24%
South Belfast 42.1 %
West Belfast 46.6 %
Lagan Valley 38.86 %
South Down 44.97%
Mid Ulster 52.83%
Newry/Armagh 43.7%
Correction : thanks to those commenters who noticed a slip here Newry and Armagh turnout was 49.05%, whilst North Antrim was 43.17%
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