Happy New Crisis
I've just got my feet back under the desk, deleted all those Christmas e-mails and girded my loins for the new political year to come, only to find that we have precisely one week to save the world.
That's not according to Flash Gordon. Rather it's the verdict of David Ford, who this afternoon said "if there is not serious engagement between the parties this week I believe we will be in a full-blown crisis next week. This must not be allowed to happen."
Presumably the Alliance leader reckons the clock is ticking because of the Sinn Fein Ard Comhairle meeting due to take place in Dublin next Saturday. That meeting is expected to hear a report back on Sinn Fein's negotiations with the DUP over devolving justice. However republican sources are steering me away from the idea that they will make any definitive announcement on what kind of "deep trouble" we are now in. Instead it's likely they will call another special meeting to consider the impasse.
There are reports of contacts between the DUP and Sinn Fein in relation to the crucial parading issue, and Shaun Woodward is seeking engagement with either side. However if there is just a week we may be in difficulties - some of the key players are bound to spend much of tomorrow at Cardinal Daly's funeral, whilst Gordon Brown is more likely to concentrate on his Prime Ministerial Question Time on Wednesday than turning to any local difficulty here. So that leaves Thursday and Friday. If so we really are in Flash Gordon territory.
Predicting anything in this process is always a fraught occupation, but the Christmas break proved the truth of the old Harold Macmillan adage about "events, dear boy, events" being most likely to blow a politician off course. First we had the revelations about Gerry Adams' brother, Liam, and the subsequent criticism of the Sinn Fein' President's handling of the matter. Then Iris Robinson's shock announcement that she was retiring due to ill health.
I don't think the full ramifications of either of these developments are entirely clear. The sympathy generated when Mr Adams revealed that his own father had subjected family members to abuse then dissipated as questions were raised about when exactly Liam had been "dumped" out of Sinn Fein in Dundalk.
Gerry Adams is an internationally recognised figure, sitting on a 70% share of the vote in West Belfast. Against that backdrop it is hard to think of the latest reports making a big difference in the forthcoming Westminster election. Nevertheless if the Adams brand has suffered damage it may tip the balance of power within republicanism more towards the Deputy First Minister, accelerating a process which has appeared to be underway for some time.
So far as Iris Robinson's resignation is concerned, the personal strains within the Robinson household already appear to have had an adverse impact in enabling the matter of a statement on the death of Cardinal Daly to slip through the First Minister's net. Mr Robinson says the family has received hundreds of messages of goodwill, after what has no doubt been a difficult Christmas. The First Minister is remaining out of circulation this week - on Monday he met Owen Paterson at his home. rather than at Stormont Castle, and he is not attending Cardinal Daly's funeral - instead sending Sammy Wilson and Arlene Foster to convey his condolences to Cardinal Brady.
Mrs Robinson's move leaves a number of vacancies in Strangford. There could be one or two MLA posts to be filled. Then there's the Westminster seat. As the longest serving of the other DUP MLAs, with nearly 4800 first preference votes, Jim Shannon no doubt fancies a crack at the seat. As a DUP member joked earlier today, if the shooting enthusiast Jim spent more time on the shuttle to London it might preserve some of the wildlife on the Ards Peninsula. That said the DUP party management might prefer to promote their bright young hope Simon Hamilton, who missed out on a junior ministerial job last time around.
However the Health Committee Chair, Jim Wells, is pointing out that his Ballynahinch voters are within the Strangford boundaires. Mr Wells is "neither confirming nor denying" that he will put his hat in the race, a phrase which most journalists would treat as a confirmation of interest. Certainly he is a tried and trusted performer, able to make telling speeches and interventions off the cuff, but will he prefer the prestige of Westminster over what he might regard as the greater powers of Stormont over "bread and butter" affairs.
Which brings us back around full circle to our New Year Crisis, because Stormont's powers could prove ephemeral if the differences over devolving justice aren't sorted out. I don't know whether they will be but predict that we might have a bit longer than a week as Sinn Fein assess their options.
I'm 
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