David Versus The Volcano
After a bit of on again, off again this morning the latest is that the Conservative leader is still heading to Northern Ireland today, flying under the ash cloud.
If he makes it, he's expected to try to deal with the Paxman interview controversy by stressing that he won't single NI out for cuts over and above anywhere else in the UK.
But come Friday will he be looking to the DUP for support, rather than his local followers in UCUNF?
The Belfast Telegraph has the one and only opinion poll of the campaign today, and if it's to be believed it's good news for the DUP, less so for Conservatives and Unionists. It suggests the DUP will hold all their 9 seats (the closest being South Antrim where it puts Sir Reg Empey 6 points behind William McCrea). It also suggests that Fermanagh is too close to call between Michelle Gildernew and Rodney Connor, that Lady Sylvia Hermon is comfortable in North Down, that Alasdair McDonnell is similarly wellahead in South Belfast, that Jim Allister is 8 points adrift of Ian Paisley Jnr in North Antrim, and that Sinn Fein's John O'Dowd is doing very well, four points behind David Simpson in Upper Bann.
You always, however, have to treat polls with a small pinch of salt - this one has a sample of 3200 people which is big across Northern Ireland but smaller when you break it down to constituency level (less than 200 each). The interviews were conducted between April 22nd and the 29th.
And as I always say no survey is a substitute for the real thing, due in less than 48 hours.
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