Map of the Week: Galoshes and a smile
It is a classic experiment on perception. Consider a beach holiday where it rains for the first three days, but the remainder of the week is dry and warm. Compare that with a similar holiday where it is sunny for the first five days but rains for the last two. Ask people which holiday had been spoiled more by the weather and they will tend to say the second - even though numerically, of course, they had more of their holiday spoiled by rain in the first example.
I mention this because I have just been sent the latest rainfall map for the United Kingdom and, given the deluge continuing outside my window in London right now, it puts the current storms into their proper perspective. Some people, as I shall explain, are cheering them on.
In the six months between May and October, the southern half of the UK saw average or below average rainfall. The northern half, including Northern Ireland, experienced above-average amounts of rain with the far north of Scotland winning the Hydrological Survey's most extreme description - "very wet".
Given the number of people who described the English summer as a "wash-out", this might seem a little surprising. For those who went camping in the Highlands, I trust you have dried out now. The figures for the past 12 months reveal an even starker picture.
Almost all of England and Wales had slightly below-average rainfall in the last year. Nevertheless, the reservoirs appear to be holding up pretty well with above average capacity for the time of year, although water stocks in the south-east are "seasonally low".
The expert assessment of last month?
"October was a mild month with a sub-tropical airflow re-introducing Indian Summer conditions over the last 10 days in south Britain especially. Anticyclonic conditions in mid-month brought autumnal mist and drizzle and, over the final third of the month, very warm sub-tropical air drawn north on the flank of continental high pressure created balmy and warm late-October weather. In Scotland, a very-slow moving frontal system brought prolonged rainfall to parts of the north-east on the 20th heralding an exceptionally wet interlude."
There is, as you might expect, an "enhanced flood risk in parts of eastern Scotland", but the rain-watchers at the survey are cheering the current storms in the south-east of England:
"The wet beginning to November, some parts of the south-east reported more than 60mm of rainfall in the first week, is particularly timely," they advise. "An unsettled outlook is also encouraging but much will depend on the actual tracks followed by the low pressure systems."
It is all about perception. Many of you, I reckon, will be cursing the rain and imagining that it is further evidence of a pretty miserable year of British weather. But for some, "unsettled" translates as "encouraging". Today I shall wear galoshes and a smile.
You can see the full Hydrological Summary here [2.04Mb PDF] and see more at the .
Update 20 November: I have posted about the tragedy in Cockermouth in a new post.
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