I used to vote for Howard, but...
Hurrah. We've made it. Election day. And I've just been asked by a presenter in London to predict the outcome. As a political tipster, I have a somewhat patchy record. At the last Indian election, I confidently predicted the demise of Sonia Gandhi’s Congress Party, only to see it achieve . Then, even more foolishly, I suggested that India’s Italian-born Prime Minister-elect would be living "La Dolce Vita". She wasn't, of course. She hated the idea of becoming PM, and so, famously, did her "inner voice" – the one that told her to step aside and leave Manmohan Singh with the burden of running the world’s biggest parliamentary democracy.
So what of Australia, a country which boasts the (I warned you I had become a little obsessive) – , which is 10 times the size of Britain.
As I told the presenter, I've learnt my lesson about making tips. But I did say this.
I've travelled to quite a few marginal constituencies, and I've spoken to what must be hundreds of voters. Bennelong, the prime minister's very own seat; Eden Monaro, the famed bellwether; Wentworth, the Liberal crown jewel; Bass in Tasmania, which was so important last time round; some of the key marginals in Queensland. In all of those places - and although this is by no means scientific, I think it's telling - what has struck me most is the number of people who've started their sentences with the words "I used to vote for John Howard, but………..’
The "but" was sometimes followed by "the failure to ratify Kyoto", "Iraq", "the rises in interest rates". And, most commonly, perhaps "", the controversial labour reforms which could do for John Howard what the in Britain. Both were widely viewed as a controversial reform too far, which hinted of arrogance and of a government so used to the trappings of power that it had forgotten where they flow from: the people.
This, for me, has been the "I used to vote for John Howard but..." election. So let me throw the question over to you. Will that translate into a Labor victory?
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I used to vote for John Howard but...
Nick
I have just cast my vote.
I am one of those voters who you describe - Historically I am a Liberal voter but today I voted for Labor in the lower house and the Greens in the upper house. Why? The negatives of the Howard government now clearly outweigh any perceived positives. Depsite its strong economic record, no matter how many economic buffers you put in place, climate change if not addressed will counteract all the other factors that keep an economy strong. Climate change to me is an economic issue as much as an environmental one. John Howard has failed to show leadership in this area. Then there is all the other scandels (AWB, funding rorts, racist leaflets, Haneef, Hicks, etc)
I predict that Kevin Rudd and Labor will win fairly easily. John Howard wil lose his own seat along with several of his ministers.
Tony
Canberra
Dear Nick,
Great to have had your columns and posts to read over the past six weeks. They've been impartial, observant and suitably distant.
Yours sincerely,
Andrew S
Lets wait and see. I've got something to lose by either outcome, so consider me a fence-sitter. I don't try to predict these thing, but I do think it's a lot closer than it's made out to be. I wouldn't bet any money on either result.
I will be harsh, though, and suggest my favorite reasons why there might be a change. Workchoices has rattled people - particularly parents with kids in first jobs. But I think it was supposed to make people nervous (to keep pressure on wages). Voters won't admit it openly, but the magic bullet for labor has been interest rates. They've gone up. As long as they didn't go up, howard could have died in office. Folks are mortgaged to the eyeballs, and rising interest rates scare them silly. Now that it's become apparent that they're going up regardless, voters are looking at the bigger picture; and they're realizing they're not necessarily happy with everything that's happened over the last decade and thinking that maybe they should give the other guy a go. All rudd has to do is appear sane and economically sensible and he's in with a chance. He's promising some things that people like the sound of (not all sensible) and that's attractive when compared with the "strong economy beats everything" line (it's not necessarily helping everyone as much as they'd like). But we'll have to wait and see.
I'm not too worried. The country will be reasonably well run regardless of who wins.
I hope so! Kevin07 FTW!
I have never been to Australia but I love the interesting facts that come out of it.
I loved it when I read once that Australians honoured a former Prime Minister who drowned in the surf with a memorial swimming pool.
I also think it's great that a country exists with a single constituency ten times the size of Great Britain. For that MP, it must be fun knowing he has power over more land than nine Gordon Browns.
And where else in the free world would a leader have the front to stand for a fifth term in office?
I have never been to Australia but I love the interesting facts that come out of it.
I loved it when I read once that Australians honoured a former Prime Minister who drowned in the surf with a memorial swimming pool.
I also think it's great that a country exists with a single constituency ten times the size of Great Britain. For that MP, it must be fun knowing he has power over more land than nine Gordon Browns.
And where else in the free world would a leader have the front to stand for a fifth term in office?
"And where else in the free world would a leader have the front to stand for a fifth term in office?"
--Any number of banana republics have had that honour.
Dear Nick,
I think it will be very tight. I've returned home to Queensland after four years in London and there's a ground swell of support for John Howard in my State, particulary after our newspaper endorsed a vote for Labour. We don't like being told what to do!
Many people, myself included, do not support all of the government's decisions/policy. However, life is pretty good over here. With virtually no unemployment, hand-outs such as the baby bonus and first home owners grant and a strong econonmy I can't see a need for change.
I've voted for the Coalition today and to keep them more focused on environment I've backed the Greens in the Senate.
I've enjoyed reading your posts, so thank you.
Kind regards,
Grace
I voted Donkey as always...
1 2 3 4 5 down the ballot paper
Personally i'm pleasantly suprised at the number of folks who seem to be voting green first, labor second on my manor??
people that usually haven't given a toss about previous elections seem to be motivated to make their votes count.
My partner is running a local polling station today and she'll have a good impression of how the voting is going, not allowed to tell me though lol!!
Nick, i've really enjoyed your blog, keep up the good work mate!
If the coalition manage to worm their way back into power my family execute our 'exit strategy' sell up and move to Wales with my Aussie family to help in building my nation, but that's a tale for another time lol!!
Gareth,
Melbourne.
Very suprised at the number of friends and associates who've voted green first then labor, folk that previously couldn't give a toss about elections???I'm hopeful but wary as i half expect the coalition's fear campaign may scrape them over the line, in which case we'll sell up and i'll take my family to Wales to assist in the building of a nation/state.
But that's a tale for another time.
Cheers Nick i've enjoyed your blog and hope you keep it going mate.
Regards,
Gareth,
Melbourne.
First of all I have really enjoyed your blogs and have found them more informative and entertaining than our own media.
As for the result... I think the Greens giving preferences to Labor could be a big factor, I think people have become concerned about climate change, especially those not normally interested in politics. I was actually hoping for a scorching hot day today so that global warming would be on people's minds as they are lining up!
I'm expecting either a narrow Liberal win, or an absolute landslide to Labor. The mood for change is there, but whether people actually go ahead with it once they are in the polling booth is another matter. Remember, we change governments very, very rarely in this country.
my guess is that Labor will win but the margin will be less than that indicated by the media published opinion polls in the run up to the election.
I really couldn't bring myself to vote for Kevin Rudd. The more I see and hear him, the more he becomes uncomfortably reminiscent of Brains in the old television show 'Thunderbirds'...
No. Coalition victory.
How about
"I used to think that the Â鶹¹ÙÍøÊ×Ò³Èë¿Ú was impartial but..."
...after listening to a 'report' on the election on world service- it sounded just like the many hundreds of ACTU/Labour campaign ads I've seen over the last 3 weeks.
Poor reporting Nick.
Hi i have just voted labour.As a pensioner We will be better under labour also the KYOTO WILL BE SIGNED CHEERS
I voted labour for both houses. have voted in two previous elections and voted for the libs and then labour
I think it will be extremely close. That last poll last night/this morning scared me - reminded me of 1999 when Kennett polled brilliantly until the week before and then all of a sudden Bracks was premier.
I want change in this country. I want a change in attitude, a change from the arrogance the Howard government has ruled with. I want a change in social policy, healthcare, employment law and for gds sake, take climate change seriously.
Labour won't stuff up the economy - they won't change enough in three years to do so.
So excited to watch the results roll in tonight!!!
I used to vote for Labor, but ... this time I voted Green because they are the only party you can trust to really do something about global warming.
One thing your readers should note about the Australian elections is the christian vote. Although not as influential as in the U.S.A the christian vote will be critical in tipping the balance of power in the senate. Both the main parties have spent cosiderable time in courting and appealing for the moral conscience of Australia. The media are very more over left wings bias and as in most countries anti-government which does falsely represent the moral thinking of the Australian people.
Ibeliev strongly that the current Australian government will lose this election.
than you.
Ibeliev strongly that the current Australian government will lose this election.
than you.
In 2001 John Howard demonised refugees, who were mainly from Iraq and Afghanistan. These people were fleeing tow of the worst regimes in the world, regimes so bad that John Howard sent Australian troops to help overthrow them. But he still used these poor desperate people for his own political ends, and the stain on his legacy and his party's will remain forever.
Thank you for a great series of blog entries. I have really enjoyed your observations. As an Australian, it is always interesting to get a different perspective on your own country.
Thanks Nick for your thoughtful coverage.
I voted Labor for the lower house and Greens for the Senate - my usual strategy. At this stage in the evening here, it looks as though Labor have won a resounding victory and John Howard will lose his own seat which is just the icing on the cake as far as I am concerned.
Here's to restoring the heart and soul of this country.
A new national anthem for Australia.
"Australians let us all rejoice.
From Howard we are free!"
What a joke the whole political scene is here in australia. Both parties with similar goals means no real choice.
Even tonights television programing offers no choice... 3 out of 4 channels covering the election, and the other airing (can you believe it) the empire strikes back... How does one go about immigrating to the UK?
I have my country back, and I hope we are scarred so this, so we do not lose our identy again.
The results are in and Rudd will be the new PM, with Howard losing his own seat by the look at it. Howard's record over the past 11 years is largely positive, with the economy booming and interest rates at close to 30-year lows. We've done very well under Howard. The electorate seems to have wanted a change for change's sake, so change they'll have. But that's democracy. So even though it's a shame to see Howard go, let's see what the new lot can do.
They fought a good campaign - almost flawless by some accounts, and the Libs did look tired - but they've got a tough act to follow, and with all state and territory governments controlled by Labor it'll be interesting to see who they'll blame when things go wrong. I give them one term.
I understand that Kevin Rudd is also a staunch republican so is it now likely he will hold a referendum on full independence and the removal of QE2 as head of state?
Rudd's victory is all the more remarkable for coming at the top of a boom and for the PM to loose his own seat at the same time. As a Bennelong voter, I did my bit in helping to show we are not impressed by bribery - John Howard's usual ploy despite being criticised by his own treasurer.
There are too many other issues to cover here.
Well the result is in and it is an unambiguous one.
This has been a proud day for Australia: we will not be bought by tawdry baubles. While not mentioned too much publicly, I am in Bennelong, the PM's electorate, and it was certainly front of mind in conversations I had.
It's official, the Kyoto Protocol will be signed and the USA will be the only country which hasn't.
A discredited, disgraceful man has finally got his comeuppance. From "children overboard" to Kyoto to Iraq to industrial relations, John Howard has done nothing but shame a great nation and make its citizens a terrorist target. Oh and the economy - all the work of a Chinese boom he had nothing to do with. Goodbye and good riddance. Now the job of the electorate is to make sure Rudd's government is held to account properly and not allowed to overstay its welcome like the last lot.
From "children overboard" to Kyoto to Iraq to industrial relations, John Howard has done nothing but shame a great nation and make its citizens a terrorist target. Oh and the economy - all the work of a Chinese boom he had nothing to do with. Goodbye and good riddance. Now the job of the electorate is to make sure Rudd's government is held to account properly and not allowed to overstay its welcome like the last lot.
It wasn't the economy, it was John Howard ideology that make me to decide for Labor. Shame to him , he dishonour Australia .
You will always have people that sit
and the Right side of the picket fence,and the people who sit on the Left side,(that's me)I can't stand the fools who sit on the fence.....
Personally if you vote for the Liberal Party in Australia you have to be very dumb or very rich. A political party that lies about what it is from the start can not be good. They are anything but liberal. People seem to think they are great at the economy, but it is funny how they are never around during the hard times of depression or recession. Australians were kidding themselves to think that the Liberal Party in Australia actually cares for them, Workchoices and the Peter Reith scandel brought the REAL Liberal party out for all to see. Oh and how do you say "Sorry" without actually apoligising? Ummm..
Kalgoorlie may be a large parliamentary constituency, but it is far from the largest in the world. The Canadian Territory of Nunuvut sends one MP to Ottawa, it covers nearly 3.2 million square kilometres and has far fewer resident voters.
Please do your fact checking.
Looks like Turnball will head the vanquished.........a passionate republican advocate.
The new Prime Minister....a republican advocate.
Now I like that. I fervently hope before I expire is to see the foreign flag struck from ours....bring it on.
cheers and beers
Ern