Runners and riders
On this High Holy Day, when a group of galloping horses has such an immobilising effect on the people of Australia, I thought I would use the fervour generated by the to spare a quick thought for the nation's political punters.
While the latest poll published today shows that John Howard is edging closer 鈥 or slowing coming up on the rails, in the parlance of the day 鈥 Labor still has an election-winning lead of six points, as it has done all year. That's why the country鈥檚 bookies continue to call the electoral race in Kevin Rudd鈥檚 favour.
If you look at the country鈥檚 five leading bookmakers, as the website has helpfully done, none gives the Liberal-led coalition more than a 29.2% probability of victory (the average probability of a Howard victory is 27.9%.) That would imply a lop-sided Labor victory.
But look at the seat-by-seat betting in the 30 or so 鈥榤arginals,鈥 the constituencies which will ultimately decide the outcome of this election, and you get a quite different picture: one that suggests a cliff-hanger rather than a Ruddslide.
Before the election was called, , an economist based at Stanford University who blogs on Australian politics, identified 15 seats that the coalition would lose and Labor would win, based on the odds of three leading bookmakers.
Tantalisingly, it meant that Labor fell just one seat short of victory (a net gain of 16 seats is its winning post).
His latest estimates, based on the same bookmakers鈥 probabilities, suggest that Labor will gain 76 out of 150 seats 鈥 a one-seat victory.
To tread the dark path of sporting clich茅 once again, the bookmakers鈥 odds suggest the election will go right down to the final furlong, with a possible photo finish. It also raises the intriguing possibility that Labor might achieve the national swing it needs for victory 鈥 4.8% - but that its vote will not be geographically concentrated in the right marginal seats (the same thing happened to Al Gore, of course, in the ).
On the subject of the Melbourne Cup, I鈥檓 in Tasmania at the moment visiting the site of the proposed pulp mill in the Tamar Valley, of which more later. In Launceston yesterday I ran into Agriculture Minister Peter McGauran, as he kicked-off the Liberal Party鈥檚 campaign in the key marginal of Bass, which the government presently holds.
After this August鈥檚 outbreak of equine influenza threatened the postponement or even cancellation of the race, he is clearly hugely relieved. 鈥淗ow would I look as the minister responsible for the cancellation of a $A400m festival, not to mention the angry punters,鈥 he told me.
Of course, the board of the Reserve Bank of Australia meets today in Sydney, and will likely decide to increase interest rates for the sixth time since the last election (they鈥檒l announce whether they鈥檝e decided to do so first thing Wednesday morning). Imagine the political fall-out if the Melbourne Cup had been called off, too.
A Labor victory and the cancellation of the 鈥榬ace that stops the nation鈥. On the first Tuesday of last November, when John Howard looked to be cantering towards a fifth straight winner鈥檚 rosette, what would have been the odds of that?
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Congratulations, Nick, on reporting the actual margins in terms of seat numbers required to be won by Labor to win Government and how that more accurately reflects the closeness of this election, rather than the pollster results reported constantly in terms of percentage of voters in favour of either party/leader.
Whenever I listen to talkback radio, read letters to Editors of print media, browse political blogs, or check TV phone-in polls or internet polls, my impression is that representation of public opinion is lopsided in these, response in the main coming from every other sector of the community other than from the conservative, busy, hardworking, family parent who represents the silent majority and who usually votes for the conservatives.
On that basis, it is quite possible this same group is not represented in the political polls being conducted throught the campaign. With seat numbers projected as very close now, I consider they will be even closer - even in the conservatives' favour - at the end election result.
It would be far more informative if the pollsters gave the demographics of each poll with their results - far more meaningful.