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Can the web organise a hung Parliament?

Rory Cellan-Jones | 10:06 UK time, Tuesday, 27 April 2010

It's been the key phrase of the last week of the campaign, and a valuable one for advertisers.

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Google searches for "hung Parliament" have been soaring, and if you put the term in the box, you will find both the Tories and an electoral-reform group called advertising alongside your search results - along with a certain lingerie retailer.

The Conservatives are using their latest party election broadcast to warn of the dangers of such an outcome but there's also a number of websites springing up with the aim of bringing it about.

Of course, it's nigh-on impossible for individual voters to make a hung Parliament happen, because we simply do not have enough information.

Even in a three-way marginal, unless we know something about how our neighbours plan to vote, you could find that voting for your first choice might end up handing victory to the candidate who was third on your list.

But some web evangelists believe they can solve this dilemma by using the net to build communities with the information to act together to change the electoral outcome.

One site, , asks you to name your preferred candidate - with a guarantee of anonymity - and then tells you how other people in your constituency are voting so you can work out whether it's worth voting tactically.

But when I looked, I was the first person in my constituency to use the site, so it needs the network effect to kick in pretty rapidly if it's to make a difference.

Another site, , describes its mission thus:

"The aim of Hang 'em is not ideological. It is not about voting for a candidate whose views you agree with (and is likely to lose). It's about voting for people with integrity and character - the more independent the better - including Tories and Labour candidates with a record of rebellion."

So the idea is to identify independent-minded candidates with a chance of winning and then rally people behind them. Already there are suggested candidates in most constituencies, and a Facebook group which the organisers believe will be the main way of spreading the message.

But even in this brand-new political movement, there are already splits and rows. Some are angry that any Labour or Conservative candidates are being put forward as suggested candidates; others are rowing over whether a Lib Dem/Labour or a Lib Dem/Conservative coalition would be better.

Of course, for plenty of people all this is irrelevant anyway because they live in places where the outcome of the election is not really in doubt.

The Electoral Reform Society has a handy site called which maps constituencies and tells you whether your vote is likely to make any difference.

Right now, the web is proving very good at providing voters with a mountain of information about the parties, their candidates and their policies, with sites like helping you make up your mind how to choose from the menu according to your personal policy tastes.

But, however keen the evangelists for a hung Parliament may be, they're going to have to draw huge crowds to their websites over the next 10 days to have a hope of making any difference to the outcome. And, according to the polls right now, they don't even need to bother - it will happen anyway.

Comments

  • Comment number 1.

    It would be great if the web could help confirm a hung parliament, bringing about a coalition with Lib Dems who can demand electoral reform.

    BUT before Tory scaremongers jump down my throat, even if it doesn't this time around, these websites will have a major impact on the next first-past-the-post general election. 5 years is a long time on the web, and given the average turnout, it won't take much to have a tangible effect on the way we vote and the outcome itself.

  • Comment number 2.

    You are absolutely spot on Rory - that's why these campaigns need to simplify their message.

    There are, admittedly, one or two constituencies where an independent or Green Party candidate has a chance. Everywhere else, the message should be simple: votd Lib Dem. It won't guarantee a hung parliament, but it will ensure more Lib Dem MPs and give Nick Clegg a bigger mandate to secure electoral reform. And it is a lot safer than voting in some complex, tactical way way to ensure neither the Tories or Labour have too much power.

    It doesn't help that sites like Hang 'Em and Vote for a Chamge have diametrically opposite goals: Hang 'Em is focused on hurting Labour as hard as possible, while for Vote for a Change Labour is the default option. They are currently pulling in opposite directions and thus, even at their own small scale, risk canceling each other out.

  • Comment number 3.

    I met Gordon Brown yesterday at Southampton University and asked him what he though about my idea to use the Internet to empower the public to Vote For Yourself and do away with politics. I got a typically long, bore for Britain answer, but he did allow that it was possible in 5-10 years.

    The thing with any new idea is that you need time to feel comfortable with it – and unfortunately that’s the one thing that’s in short supply between now and next Thursday. The trouble with tactical voting, spoiling your ballot paper, not voting or making a protest vote (hopefully the Greens rather than the BNP) etc is that it’s ultimately a complete waste of time - a few thousand votes swapped is a drop in the ocean.

    Look at our current system as horses, the Holy Grail of PR as steam and the Internet as electricity – let’s move straight to the Internet and use it to debate policies all the way through to fine details.

    After a reasonable period, let’s say a month, you could have a few days for the public to vote and actually feel that their own views, perhaps altered by reading a persuasive blog or watching someone’s Youtube, are being accurately reflected in a consensus based law that would be well-thought out and properly debated. It could include quite drastic new measures eg it might be legalising drugs or building more prisons or combining the many different personal taxes – hey, we’re talking about rebuilding the nation here and the sorts of measures being proposed by the Big 3 (particularly in a coalition after a hung parliament) are not going to do this.

    The Big 3 propose to continue sailing the sinking ship of state while the officer class swan about pretending that we haven’t hit an iceberg and while those who have direct access to the captain’s table are first in line for the lifeboats. Meanwhile everyone else is locked below deck bailing out. 100 years after the Titanic sunk, we do not appear to have made much progress either with the class system or with recognising that we’ve been lied to since day 1 and that this will continue until we use the democratic process to regain control of our own lives.

    I was late starting my campaign, but the original plan was to endorse an independent in each constituency and stand a V4Y candidate where necessary. The plan now is still to endorse an independent, but where there is no such candidate to organise those constituents to vote Green or UKIP or LibDem. I will have a list up on the www.voteforyourself.org.uk website by next Tuesday showing who is the V4Y endorsed candidate.

    Clearly the likely outcome next week is a hung parliament followed by a short-lived coalition so we’re going to be back here this time next year. By that time we’ll have some form of PR (and which version we get will be fun, will it be the real Holy Grail or a poisoned chalice?) and it is likely that we’ll get another hung parliament.

    After years of wanting PR, getting V4Y instead is like losing a quid and finding a £50 note! Check out www.v4y.org.uk

  • Comment number 4.

    It would help if count my vote actually displayed how many people had voted - my seat (currently tory) had 100% Lib Dem, but that turned out to be because only 1 person had visited it prior to me.
    What would be interesting is a post election reflection, what will the site predict for each seat on the 6th may vs what actually happens as this sort of tool wont vanish and may be more popular next time, we need to know credability.
    Vote match gave me a max % of 53 for one party (which I shall not be voting for as I dont like my local candidate) which prob says no party is anywhere near what I believe.

  • Comment number 5.

    We're trying to do something very similar with www.twitvoteuk.org.uk. We're mapping out the opinions received by constituency, and you can see the results so far per constituency. We don't have any stance towards influencing the election in any way, rather to demonstrate the technology and ability that crowd-sourcing via Twitter can offer.

  • Comment number 6.

    Agree with number 2. Realistically anyone who wants the minor party of their choice to actually have a genuine voice in the future should be voting for the Lib Dems, the only major party with a vested interest in electoral reform (and therefore the only ones likely to do more than pay lip service to it once the election is over).

  • Comment number 7.

    I was surprised when UKIP told its voters to back the Conservatives. By doing so they're only supporting the system that shuts their party out. It would make much more sense for UKIP voters to back the Lib Dems, because if we can get electoral reform, UKIP voters will get more representation in future parliaments.

    Add to that, that the Lib Dems have said they would have a referendum for any further transfer of power to the EU, which is something the Conservatives wouldn't do.

  • Comment number 8.

    Other nations have the exact same political troubles we appear to have here in America. Recently the Britain Prime Minister was caught labeling Gillian Duffy, a former council worker, a bigoted woman. The remark has started quite a few controversy that may result in a hung parliament at their forthcoming elections. Gordon Brown did try to apologize proclaiming he was referring to a remark she made about their immigration issues. Sadly, Gillian Duffy supported Brown, and has now said she no more supports him anymore; making his opposition gain some ground.

  • Comment number 9.

    There's also the huge youtube backlash against Murdoch trying to make sure a hung parliament doesn't happen. Have a look at 'A Hund Parliament is Death':

  • Comment number 10.

    Here is the list of the top 100 constituencies where your tactical vote could prevent a Tory majority:

    Twit it!

  • Comment number 11.

    LOL... of course I had to google it myself to check it out (your blog comes up in the yahoo search results for hung parliament now too by the way Rory - even in Uganda!)... and you're right about the 'certaing lingerie retailer'.. that was funny!

    Given the current level of in Britain, I personally think the UK is well on its way to a hung parliament without any help. Ironically the same citizens that are so frustrated with the incumbents are likely to be the ones contributing to the hanging.

  • Comment number 12.

    If it ain't broke don't fix it. The black metal box, bit of paper and stubby ball point works with virtually 100% reliability and costs very little Compared to the likely budget overun and reliabilty of any national IT scheme only a maniac (or someone with shares in the IT company) would seriously suggest replacing the polling station with the PC.

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