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Ukraine security officials say more than 100,000 Russian troops have been sent close to its borders. Vladimir Putin has threatened military measures but denies planning to invade Ukraine. However, he has repeated his long-felt resentment at post-Soviet Nato enlargement and his condemnation of the 2014 Ukrainian revolution, and has said that in fact, it is Russia who is under threat from the West.

British author and journalist Tim Marshall outlines the reasons for and against a Russian invasion.

He says these are all signs that Russia is planning to invade. Moscow are making what Nato consider to be unreasonable demands - which, if these aren't met, Russia could use this as justification. They have made claims that Ukrainian forces are planning to use chemical weapons, meaning an invasion would be a defence against that. There is a significant Russian build up of forces at the border, which includes bridge-laying equipment and air defence, and there has been an increase in cyber attacks on the Ukrainian government.

On the other hand, there are reasons against an invasion. Ukraine, as well as Finland and Sweden, may well join Nato - who could then move 'heavy armour' to the Ukraine border, and Russia could sustain heavy losses. Russia would suffer from the sanctions Nato are threatening, as well as getting involved in a longterm guerrilla war.

Photo: A Russian soldier near the Crimean town of Dzhankoy 12 miles away from the Ukrainian border
Credit: Getty Images

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