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News from the gallops - watch St Austell & Newquay

Graham Smith | 13:01 UK time, Wednesday, 28 April 2010

Bookmakers are offering odds on every constituency in Cornwall. Of interest is how UKIP seems to be drifting into fifth and Mebyon Kernow closing on - sometimes overtaking - Labour.

Bookmakers are not generally known for letting their hearts rule their heads - they just follow the money - and so William Hill's response to the St Austell & Newquay constituency is particularly interesting. Mebyon Kernow's Dick Cole started at 100-1. Then it was 50-1. Then 33-1. Today he's 12-1. , however, are still offering 6-4 against MK saving any deposits.

Here are the latest William Hill's odds for each Cornish constituency:

St Austell & Newquay

Lib Dem 4-9
Conservative 13-8
MK 12-1
Labour 125-1
UKIP 150-1

Camborne & Redruth
Lib Dem 1-5
Conservative 10-3
Labour 66-1
MK 100-1
UKIP 125-1

Truro & Falmouth
Lib Dem 1-4
Conservative 11-4
MK 100-1
Labour 125-1
UKIP 125-1

North Cornwall
Lib Dem 2-5
Conservative 2-1
Labour 100-1
MK 100-1
UKIP 100-1

South East Cornwall
Lib Dem 1-3
Conservative 9-4
Labour 100-1
MK 100-1
UKIP 125-1

St Ives
Lib Dem 1-25
Conservative 9-1
MK 100-1
Labour 125-1
UKIP 150-1

As far as I can see William Hill is not offering prices on any of the other parties. Ladbrokes is also doing constituency odds, with generally similar .

Comments

  • Comment number 1.

    This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the house rules. Explain.

  • Comment number 2.

    This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the house rules. Explain.

  • Comment number 3.

    Yes, Graham, what could be more heartening for the people of Cornwall than to have a Cornish man with Cornwall singing in his veins and who is embedded in the community and knows it through and through carrying Cornwall in his heart to Westminster?

    How are you getting on with THE KEVIN LAVERY CHALLENGE! ? :



    There's journalistic gold in them thar 10% Council Tax Discount Second 'Home' bogus electoral lists...

  • Comment number 4.

    My last post was removed for defamation, so lets try again. Apparently tvs and rocking chairs are a taboo subject.

    I really don't understand the odds given for Camborne, Redruth and Hayle. In the past the old Falmouth and Camborne seat has flitted between candidates and never stuck true to one single MP or party and because of that and the boundary changes is an unpredictable call.
    Personally i know a lot of people in the area that were very put off by the expenses scandal and seemed quite keen on Loveday Jenkin. Perhaps others are tempted by the Tories. It'll be an interesting result whatever happens, but I remain to be convinced that Lib Dems willl hold on.

  • Comment number 5.

    Readers of Graham Smith's blog interested in why comments 1 & 2 were removed and wishing to post comments here that stand a chance of survival may be interested in the 'Â鶹¹ÙÍøÊ×Ò³Èë¿Ú Message Board House Rules During Election Periods':

    /messageboards/newguide/elections.shtml

    Readers interested in complaining to the Â鶹¹ÙÍøÊ×Ò³Èë¿Ú (our self-regulating(!) PUBLIC SERVICE broadcaster) about the SCANDALOUS denial of equal air time to Mebyon Kernow - one of the 'three main parties' contesting all 6 seats in Cornwall's General Election 2010 - may wish to write to 'Â鶹¹ÙÍøÊ×Ò³Èë¿Ú Complaints' at the Â鶹¹ÙÍøÊ×Ò³Èë¿Ú's 'Message Board House Rules During Election Periods'web site helpfully provided at the page above. Here it is:

    /complaints/homepage/

    Here is some interesting background to the Â鶹¹ÙÍøÊ×Ò³Èë¿Ú's active and orchestrated campaign of denial of equal airtime to Mebyon Kernow:


  • Comment number 6.

    Here's an interesting opportunity for a sporting tipster like yourself, Graham:



    'What are the odds on the Â鶹¹ÙÍøÊ×Ò³Èë¿Ú abiding by its Â鶹¹ÙÍøÊ×Ò³Èë¿Ú Royal Charter Remit Obligations of 'fairness' and 'impartiality' by giving Mebyon Kernow, one of the 'three main parties' contesting Cornwall's 6 Parliamentary seats, equal air time from here on in to May 6th?'

    Any offers from yourself, Graham?

  • Comment number 7.

    The 'policy' of giving air time in proportion to the amount of votes the party has previously received is scandalously undemocratic and self perpetuates and reinforces the charade that only the three 'main' parties should be considered as serious contenders. What is worse, the policy 'averages' out results from accross Britain and seemingly has no capability of being sympathetic to local distinctions, flavours and cultures.

    The question is whether this is a deliberate, cynical and Anglo-centric attempt to manipulate public opinion in Cornwall or simply poor quality journalism that does not attempt to study the differences that exist in Cornwall and then report fairly the fact that those differences exist.

  • Comment number 8.

    Let me pose this question in relation to election coverage: would it be fair to afford equal airtime to all candidates, even if their only qualification for being on a ballot paper was that they could afford the deposit? At what point would elections cease to be about democratic government and start to become cheap advertising opportunities for commercial organisations? My advice to any would-be politician is - get the votes, then you'll get the coverage.

  • Comment number 9.

    Perhaps you are right to pose that question, Graham.
    Perhaps all elections should start 'tabula rasa', all parties as equals and no Political Party or group of parties deriving additional coverage or advantage merely through force of pre-existing establishment. That would freshen things up a bit!

    Currently the Â鶹¹ÙÍøÊ×Ò³Èë¿Ú is applying a London-centric tri-party-cabal frame of reference to the presentation of politics within The Celtic Nation And Duchy Of Cornwall. Your semantic references are all tied up with portraying the 'three main parties' across the UK as the same as the 'three main parties' in Cornwall when that is far from applicable or the case. The fact is Mebyon Kernow is one of the 'three main parties' contesting all 6 seats within The Duchy Of Cornwall (Green Party in only 4) with Labour trailing well behind in last years Local Government and European Elections and not even winning a seat on Cornwall Council.

    Here are some reliable statistics to confirm these facts:


    Â鶹¹ÙÍøÊ×Ò³Èë¿Ú Radio CORNWALL is neither Â鶹¹ÙÍøÊ×Ò³Èë¿Ú UK nor Â鶹¹ÙÍøÊ×Ò³Èë¿Ú England. Is it?

    Get on with it - fulfil your Â鶹¹ÙÍøÊ×Ò³Èë¿Ú Royal Charter Obligations - Give EQUAL time to Mebyon Kernow. Those reliable 'cornishzetetics' Â鶹¹ÙÍøÊ×Ò³Èë¿Ú Political Coverage statistics are truly shocking and a shameful disgrace to the Â鶹¹ÙÍøÊ×Ò³Èë¿Ú and an insult to the Cornish electorate:



    PROPER JOB, please.


  • Comment number 10.

    MK has 3 councillors on Cornwall Council- Labour have zero. MK had a bigger share of the European vote than labour. MK has a clear history of participation in Cornish politics stretching back to the 1950s. Clearly MK is not a commercial organisation. How the Â鶹¹ÙÍøÊ×Ò³Èë¿Ú defines the difference between democratic government and commercial organisations is down to the Â鶹¹ÙÍøÊ×Ò³Èë¿Ú. What is clear is that it is failing dismally in Cornwall at the momentto make an accurate distinction. Very shoddy journalism.

  • Comment number 11.

    In reference to your comments Graham:
    In the wake of the tv leaders debate and the rise of Clegg in the polls it is easy to draw a parallel between press coverage and support. Like it or not media organisations like the Â鶹¹ÙÍøÊ×Ò³Èë¿Ú have a huge influence on the way people vote. I firmly believe that all parties that stand on serious issues and have received some success previously in the polls should be covered equally. I hesitate to direct this toward you Graham because Radio Cornwall have done some great coverage particularly the radio hustings. Nevertheless it is up to viewers who to decide to vote for not up to the publically funded media, shunning of parties is not healthy and goes against the prinicples of democracy. The voters should decide who to vote for and the media should let them so who is on offer.

  • Comment number 12.

    I agree completely that media coverage does influence support. But I think the problem is how you define "serious issues" and "some success previously in the polls." I remember the Natural Law Party took their attempts at levitation very seriously and seemed convinced that Yogic Flying would bring world peace. And how much success? Which polls? How far back in time? At Â鶹¹ÙÍøÊ×Ò³Èë¿Ú Radio Cornwall we have sought to provide proportionate coverage, based on demonstrable electoral support in Cornwall measured over the 2009 council and Euro elections, and the 2005 general election. The alternative is to abandon journalism and turn coverage into an invitation for fly posting.

  • Comment number 13.

    No you haven't. No it isn't.

    Did the Â鶹¹ÙÍøÊ×Ò³Èë¿Ú so blatantly deny Plaid Cymru and the SNP proper levels of coverage. NO. The conduct of the Â鶹¹ÙÍøÊ×Ò³Èë¿Ú in Cornwall's 2010 General Election has been a disgrace.

    The Â鶹¹ÙÍøÊ×Ò³Èë¿Ú Royal Charter Breeching Show Goes On...and on...and on...:


  • Comment number 14.

    Oh, and by the way, being a sporting chap, you might appreciate these 'Gallops News' updates:





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