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The Reporters: US mid-terms

Adam Brookes

Foreign-affairs crisis


The wisdom 鈥 if such a thing exists as the polls open 鈥 is that the Democrats will take the House of Representatives, but they probably won鈥檛 take the Senate.

If the wisdom proves correct and the House falls to the Democrats, what would it mean for the rest of the world?

theteam_story_ap.jpgWell, possibly not much, it seems to me.

Congress has little weight in the formulation of specific foreign and national security policies. Those get set by the executive branch of government 鈥 the administration.

The future of America鈥檚 involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan and the responses to Iranian and North Korean nuclear programmes are being decided in the National Security Council, the Pentagon, the Department of State and the White House.

(One important caveat: there is said to be an intense and important discussion on Iraq and what on earth to do about it taking place between a bipartisan group of Senators. But that may be the exception that proves the rule.)

If the Democrats win the House, they will have some tools with which to confront the White House.

They could threaten to cut off funding for foreign policies they don鈥檛 like by voting down spending bills that are funding the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, for example.

They can haul political appointees like Donald Rumsfeld over the coals in Congressional hearings.

And they can create a political atmosphere which makes it very difficult for the president to do his job.

But what a huge political risks these options bring. What Democrat would want to be seen cutting off funding for troops in the field? Or bringing down members of the president鈥檚 cabinet in the middle of a war? Or creating a ferocious partisan atmosphere which leads to political paralysis?

Two years before a presidential election, the last thing the Democrats want is to open themselves up to accusations of being defeatist or incompetent on national security.

I talked to a senior American diplomat at the weekend 鈥 one not involved in Iraq or Middle East policy. He was deeply pessimistic about American foreign policy in the short to medium term. 鈥淲e鈥檙e adrift,鈥 he said.

The elections seemed suddenly to fade in significance. America鈥檚 foreign-policy crisis 鈥 and it is thought to be a crisis by many in the diplomatic and intelligence communities 鈥 won鈥檛 be solved by emboldened Congressional Democrats.

Adam Brookes is the 麻豆官网首页入口's Pentagon correspondent.

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  • 1.
  • At 07:59 AM on 07 Nov 2006,
  • cazh wrote:

the foreign crisis we face right now is a result of our current administration. i'm sure when democrats win back the house (and hopefully the senate) the republican machine will find a way to blame us for something. it's been done. over and over. old news.

the foreign crisis is sadly going to be long term, and a victory for the donks tomorrow means more than just a majority in congress; it reassures our party that politics in our country don't have to be about spin-mastership. in the long run, democratic leadership will be the only real option for mending the mess that G.W. has created over the past six years, and this is just one more step in ensuring that no republican occupies our executive position come 2008.

i'm tired of being hated by the rest of the world, and it certainly is time for change. tomorrow will be great, but i'm still waiting for january 20th, 2009.

san diego, ca

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  • 2.
  • At 09:36 AM on 07 Nov 2006,
  • Joseph Nyirenda wrote:

I hope the Democrats get the win they desire, but what will they do to change the "hate" that most -not all-in the world community have for the Americans?

In my young days, everyone in my 'bare-foot football team' wanted to go to America, but now. No one wants to be searched to their skeleton just to be allowed into the USA for one hour!

The USA has alot of hearts to win back, not just in the Moslem world! Maybe its time the rest of the world votes for the next President of the USA...that would be world democracy, indded!

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  • 3.
  • At 11:41 AM on 07 Nov 2006,
  • DJM wrote:

This reminds me of the saying, "Be careful what you wish for, you might just get it".

Slow and steady wins the race, the race being the 2008 Presidential election.

If the Dems controlled Congress for the next 2 years and things don't improve in Iraq, then they will have given the American public an opportunity to judge them harshly in the biggy in 2008.

Just controlling the House would be enough for them now, strategically speaking.

In regards to the comments above about Americans being hated by the rest of the world, a lot of people didn't like you even before 9/11, so quit worrying about it.

It's an attitude that spreads like osmosis with no logical argument, and you'll never win.

I used to be anti-American, I know.

Now I'd be voting GOP if I was a citizen.

The last thing you should ever judge yourself on is whether people like you, or even respect you. If you don't stand up for what you believe in, then you stop being America, you become Europe! And then we have no one to turn too! Idealism is what makes America the great country it is.

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  • 4.
  • At 11:58 AM on 07 Nov 2006,
  • Julio Nunez wrote:

Dear Sir:

As an interested observer in the US Elections of today, I wonder if you can enlighten me. Is it not the fact that if Nancy Pelosi becomes Speaker of the House of Representatives, she would be the third in line for the presidency in the event that because of some tragic coincidence the President and the Vice-President were to die on the same day? If this is the case I wonder why no one ever mentioned it.

J Nu帽ez

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  • 5.
  • At 05:57 PM on 07 Nov 2006,
  • Gina Hoang wrote:

It looks like whoever is Speaker of the House of Representatives is 3rd in line for the presidency, right after the Vice President. I suspect part of why most people don't talk much about this is there has never been an instance in the history of US presidents that someone other than a Vice President has assumed the presidency, either permanently or just acting temporarily. There have been times when there was no Vice President (due to the VP becoming president or otherwise leaving office), and there have been speculations of how precisely succession would occur in those situations, since the Speaker of the House may not be of the same party as the current President and Vice President. For example, in 1973, when there was a vice presidential vacancy during the Watergate scandal, and the then House Speaker Carl Albert was next in line, and he openly speculated whether or not it was appropriate for him to assume the presidency should it be needed. He decided that should he need to assume the presidency, he would do so only as acting president until Congress appointed a Republican Vice President, at which point he would resign (information drawn from Wikipedia's entries on and the ). However, it has never actually happened, so it's easy to ignore the possibility on the assumption that it'll never happen.

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  • 6.
  • At 07:01 PM on 07 Nov 2006,
  • NJ wrote:

Perhaps the slight majority of American voters who voted for the current administration need to apologize for the seemingly interminable mess in the Middle East. And though we may wait with abated breath for such a thing, I am sure we all know it won't come. It certainly won't come from anyone in the Bush administration.

In this respect, though it may seem as though these mid-term elections, and any potential Democratic victories have no real consequence in the foreign (or domestic) policies of the US, the election itself is quite meaningful. It means that someone is paying attention. Although it may not make a difference today or even tomorrow, the point is that it will make a difference one day.

I am sure the scenario described by Mr. Brookes in this blog would be political suicide, but I believe that it is also political suicide for the elected congress persons to fail do the job their constituents have placed them there to do.

- Student in NJ

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  • 7.
  • At 08:03 PM on 07 Nov 2006,
  • Shawn wrote:

I agree there is a foreign affairs crisis. I have no problem with the US having an active role in the world and using our influence for change, but not as a bully and not where it's not wanted. We would be stronger and safer united with our former and (hopefully) future allies, especially in this age of international terrorism. I'm not sure why the worldwide wave of anti-Americanism makes right-wingers think we're on the right course, but it's clearly idiotic if not insane. We must restore our dignity and credibility, and it could take decades after just 6 years of Bush. Still, there is plenty of anti-Americanism that is just plain obnoxious and mindless, but that's another topic.

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  • 8.
  • At 04:44 AM on 08 Nov 2006,
  • Hoq wrote:

Idealism and working for the greater good is nice and all, but it seems like we could do it without pissing in everyone's soup. I'll seriously be afraid if Democrats don't get the House and Senate tonight. That would let Republicans know there is no accountablility for severe screw ups. Sad and creepy, but I see us as Germany of 1934 with oblivious citizens looking for "security" at any cost. I'd hate to see things 10 years from now if we don't change.

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  • 9.
  • At 09:07 AM on 08 Nov 2006,
  • fair and balanced wrote:

True Shawn (7) - there is alot of obnoxious anti-americanism. There is however many a valid point that gets shouted down as such by one eyed americans unable to take criticism.

What would your answer to the foreign affairs crisis be?

The way i see it is that you are damned if you do withdraw and damned if you don't.

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