Come and have a go
So there I was at Holyrood about to leave for the .
(What鈥檚 that? You want to know the score? Aberdeen 1, Dundee United 4. Magnificent, simply magnificent.)
Anyway, my progress was interrupted by breaking news. Alex Salmond t.
I changed tack to broadcast to an astonished nation.
Let鈥檚 be clear. The First Minister can鈥檛, himself, call a Scottish general election. He can鈥檛 simply pop down to the palace (Buckingham or the Edinburgh version across the road from the Scottish Parliament.)
Serious vote
Instead, MSPs are bound by the Scotland Act 1998. Clause 3 (1) if you鈥檙e looking for the reference.
That provides that Holyrood elections are held every four years - unless at least two thirds of MSPs support a motion for early dissolution; OR the first minister resigns and nobody is elected as a replacement within the statutory 28 days.
So what鈥檚 going on? Firstly, SNP ministers are reminding everyone of the seriousness of tonight鈥檚 vote (if they needed reminding.)
The Budget Bill isn鈥檛 just any other piece of legislation. It represents the core of Scottish administration, permitting 拢30bn of annual expenditure upon services such as schools, hospitals and police.
So, ministers are saying - perhaps especially to smaller influences such as the Greens and Margo Macdonald (Independent MSP) - that there are limits to the concessions they can be expected to make.
Secondly, this is a blunt challenge to the principal opposition party, Labour. It is 鈥渃ome and have a go if you think you鈥檙e hard enough.鈥
Ministers are suggesting that out of relative weakness can come strength. The weakness being the SNP鈥檚 minority status, the strength being their expectation that they would gain more seats from Labour in a rerun election.
'Discomfiting tactics'
Thirdly, the first minister cannot resist the temptation of showmanship. There is - and always has been - a fair touch of rogueishness about A. Salmond.
He likes the thought that he is discomfiting his opponents, making them rethink.
To cut to the chase. Will Alex Salmond resign? No, because the budget will get through. I believe the Tories will vote for the overall financial package, provided they get something on speedier cuts in business rates to add to existing concessions.
I believe the (two) Greens and Margo will also end up on Salmond鈥檚 side. I believe Labour will vote against.
I believe the Liberal Democrats will abstain, arguing that the budget is insufficiently detailed on issues like the efficiency savings demanded from the public sector.
I also believe Dundee United will go on to win the CIS cup at Hampden.
I'm 
Comments
Are you serious "Dundee United win the cup" and I thought you were a serious reporter ;-)
Hi Brian, this is a win win situation for the SNP but your prediction on Dundee Utd winning the CIS cup is as likely as the Greens winning a re-run election.
you can not be serious about this post, I mean "Dundee United to win the cup" and here I was thinking you were a reporter of sound judgement
Yep. Definetely headline grabbing.
But we all know that with Labours current 'team' they would get thumped in an election. I would like to see the budget go through uncontested and believe it will go through with the Labour party voting against (they are nuthing if not reliable)
It would be fantastic if there was another election as it would give the country the opportunity to let the MSP's see that we want a constructive government in place with a good quality opposition.
Currently there is SNP leading and being seen to be dynamic and working for the people. The only real opposition is the Tories who are working for Scotland and doing a good job in opposition. Wouldnt it be great to see a government with people of the calibre offered by these 2 parties working for the good of Scotland.
Instead we have the Labour and Lib Dem gang with no direction picking away at dead end smear campaigns and trying to frustrate the progress of Scotland. Sureley not what was envisaged by the people who voted for them. I say kick em out and get some real work done.
afternoon brian, whilst alex salmond can be a "bit of a rougue" he is not stupid . he will have done his sums and he will have seen an oppurtunity to embarrass the labour party . it was an open goal really and he couldn't miss. if an election was called tomorrow who would be in a fit state to fight it.maybe the labour party could use wendy's money or did she use it all up? as i have tried to say in previous posts a good government needs a dam good opposition to ensure the country benefits and not individuals.in scotland we've not had a decent opposition to the ruling party for 2 generations look where that has got us.
ps well done last night united
As an exiled Dundonian living in Orkney I could only to listen to the game last night. I'm with you Brian pure magic, united for cup!. I'm sure budget will go through no bother
HEY PRESTO! Mr Salmond has put the lib-lab alliance behind the 8 ball,now will they have the courage of their convitions to oppose the budget at this final stage.Of course not,it's modern politics and todays politicians dont give up the cream they lap up so much for that old guard called principal stance,so is Alex playing hard ball,no! he is simply giving the opposition a choice."YOU TAKES WHAT YOU GET OR YOU LEAVES IT AND LET THE CARDS LAY AS THEY FALL"
I listened to Margo MacDonald's interview on Radio Scotland this morning. I find it incredible that someone who has an influence (albeit small) on the outcome of an important decision can make such crass comments
Oh! Come on Gavin, with Brian juggling all day and every day the shenanigans at Holyrood the guy deserves a bit of light relief.
Now we all know that AS is as good a showman as we have in Scotland; never mind the fact that he can outwit the opposition at all turns.
It is all about numbers in the Holyrood seen at present; the biggest difficulty with the opposition is that the numbers that they and only they can see are pounds sterling.
As for putting Scotland first above everything else there is only one out fit there.
Yep. Definetely headline grabbing.
But we all know that with Labours current 'team' they would get thumped in an election. I would like to see the budget go through uncontested and believe it will go through with the Labour party voting against (they are nuthing if not reliable)
It would be fantastic if there was another election as it would give the country the opportunity to let the MSP's see that we want a constructive government in place with a good quality opposition.
Currently there is SNP leading and being seen to be dynamic and working for the people. The only real opposition is the Tories who are working for Scotland and doing a good job in opposition. Wouldnt it be great to see a government with people of the calibre offered by these 2 parties working for the good of Scotland.
Instead we have the Labour and Lib Dem gang with no direction picking away at dead end smear campaigns and trying to frustrate the progress of Scotland. Sureley not what was envisaged by the people who voted for them. I say kick em out and get some real work done.
brian, see the sparks fly.
if this budget is voted down by this
unruly bunch (lib-lab.)dont be so sure one alex s.wont carry out his threat,i believe he WILL,thank goodness for the torries they have surprised me,perhaps its just the
sight of political posturing of the rest that makes them so good,
heard ian grey on this morning complaining no labour concessions,
no wonder,thats why he was dumped at the last election, if they dont start to improve a few more will go the same way.
Brian
Clearly the previous respondents don't understand your underlying logic.
What you are saying in your last sentence is that you could be wrong about how the Budget vote will pan out-that's all.
Saying that you are as infallible as the prospects of Dundee United makes perfect sense to all fellow Arabs like me.
See you at Hampden on 16th March-I'll be wearing tangerine.
Augh, Brian! You've spoilt my day - no election? Are you sure? And I thought I was in for another wee fix.
You are, of course, entirely correct. (though I think both labour and the libdems will abstain). It would be political suicide for labour and the libdems to present themselves before the people at this time.
We haven't had a poll for a couple of months but the last one I saw had the SNP 13% ahead of labour and that was BEFORE Wendy Alexander and heir apparent, Dr Andy Kerr Phd. (McDonalds), were BOTH refered to the Procurator Fiscal. These referals are not too serious but the prospect of a really serious referal to the PF for Wendy over the Paul Green donation and cover up means that they may be looking for a new leader in short time.
Is Kerr still the obvious choise as next leader? Especially as a mere 2.75% swing to the SNP's Linda Fabiani from last May will unseat him. Though I'm sure he would be on the list - if they merited a list seat that is - strong labour area Central Scotland and they didn't get a list MSP back in May.........Come on down Baron Foulkes!?
I think this announcement has just proved Salmond to be a tactical genius.
Win Win all the way for the SNP.
Do we really want to see UK Labour's Scottish regional branch getting themselves into deeper water over illegal donations with a Scottish election?
Of course we do!
The Arabs for the cup? Oh well now you've got rid of that "dud" Robson you might have a wee smidgen of a chance.
Another election, nae chance but I'd love to see it happen, I might even vote SNP myself in recognition of their reasonable conduct since comming to power.
Consensus politics rule, Catch up Labour PLEASE!
The Lib-Lab would love to see A. Salmond stand down because deep down they know hes the best MSP in Scotland but the Lib-Labs are playing a dangerous game with there constant smearing eg Trumps golf course The Aviemore project Instead of constructive policies. The scottish public are not daft and come the next election they will have even a less say in scottish politics if they keep going down this line. Lets just hope this budget goes through for the good of Scotland and the Lib-labs should show some commonsense and go with it.Keep up the good work snp
We live in hope that a new Scottish election is called, Labour are in dissaray the Libdems are as useful as a chocolate fire guard the Conservatives the best and most productive opposition that we could hope for ,are in no way going to get a lot of seats for a longtime . So that leaves the SNP to increase its share of the votes. But alas im sure when it comes to the vote that the budget will be passed.
I agree, United will win the cup, 1-0 after enduring 80 minutes of a Rangers onslaught, they will score a break away goal.
As for salmond, he won't resign cos the Lib dems will do what they always do, run away when challenged and abstain, and the Tories and Greems will vote in favour and effectively say to the Scottish public that "we are serious politicans willing to judge each issue on its merits and compromise.
Pity the Labour party are still stuck in a time warp, more concerned with chewing old soup than getting on with the real busines of representing their constituents and acting in the best interests of all Scots.
We have an opportunity over the next few years to see all politicians put aside their differences and genuinely work together in a minority parliament to deliver effective policies for the benefit of all, not the narrow support base for each party.
SNP, Tories and Greens seem willing to do that, Labour and Lib Dems do not.
In many ways, it would be better if an election were held. then we could get a party with a proper working majority and put an end to all the pettiness which seems to have cropped up since the last election
I agree on your assessment on Dundee.
There's a strong hope in me that the budget gets passed tonight and that the Government can get on with governing.
There's an equally strong hope that the A Salmond bluff gets called and an election follows in due course. Why??
Quite simply, if the dishonest, disreputable and utterly unacceptable MSPs that inhabit the upper echelons of the Lab/LibDem parcel of roques north of the border continue to resist the common will of the people that they should demit office forthwith, then THE BENDY and her WAGSS* should be forced to face the electorate in a general election and be uniformly ejected from office.
* For starters, that will be:
Whitton;
Alexander;
Gordon;
Stephen;
Scott.
The MSP's opposed to the budget could throw coins, pies and plastic bottles at Alex Salmond when his back is turned, and it might put him off enough to lose the vote.
They banned fox hunting because the poor wee fox got ripped to pieces at the end of the chase...
It looks like wily Alex will have to be careful or the cruel sports people will be after him next...
Seems like the budget will go through, the First Ministers position will be strenghtened and the Labour/Liberal alliance will be sent away to lick their wounds... weakened and unlikely to recover for many a day
But no-one should be over-confident (remembering a week is a long time in politics) as there might just be a banana skin around the next corner awaiting the unwary ...
Just heard Kit Fraser on TV speaking about Trump & Aviemore& other things I watched the TRIAL of Mr Soriel today and it was clear Duncan McNeil and other Lab/Lib people are out to get Alex Salmond any way they can.No word on Wendy today.Don't know if this comment will be allowed as others have not.
"If you don't play by my rules, I'll take my ball home".
This is the grown up, consensus, politics we were promised is it? Pathetic. The SNP should remember they are the minority government - more people voted against them than for them.
I, for one, am totally fed up of this posturing, smug, arrogant man we have for a First Minister.
Sure Labour/Lib Dem may get a hammering but the Tories have shown themselves to be worth voting for again, and I have seen plenty of posts from people who won't forget that the SNP have renaged on a lot of their manifesto promises. The SNP won't have it all their own way.
What would happen anyway? The SNP still wouldn't have a clear majority, there still wouldn't be a coalition (nothing has changed so why would there be), so we'd still have a minority government.
Ie A total waste of time and money. All thanks to the SNP.
I think the LibDems will bottle it and abstain. If there were to be an election, the SNP might gain a few seats, but I don't see who would line up to join them in coalition. Only difference is the SNP might be able to survive just by persuading either the Tories or the Lib Dems to back them when it matters.
I think Labour will vote for the budget.
I have to say i do agree, the tories could come out pretty good in the eyes of the politically aware in Scotland. It is about time people formed their opinions on well informed journalism as compared with "colours to the mast solidarity". However, it is heartening that even the Daily Record has withdrawn support from the female alexander contingent!
The lib dems will have to change tact - and possibly leader - if their reputation in Scotland is to improve, but i agree with Tam; the other parties are expressing a willingness to do so.
And lets be fair - Iain Gray criticising the back room deals of the SNP and the tories? PAH! thats the way that the ENTIRE budget was passed in previous Scottish Parliamentary sessions!
The Liberal party is insufficiently detailed!
Good riddance to him if he goes - he has done nothing but make us a laughing stock with his ridiculous 'fights' with Westminster. It's about time he realised that he's not the King of Scotland, despite what his ego thinks!
As long as there are 17 brave souls in Kilsyth willing to vote Lib Dem, the Union is still alive.
you have your answer Brian.
They weren't hard enough
I hope Salmond does resign and forces another election.
There are now so many of an uneducated [mostly cannot spell], chauvinist, tartan rabble supportive of his party that they will get in with a big majority.
Then, when he can do what he likes, he will, I expect, make sutch a thorough ruination of his "scotland" that will see the end of his party for good.
He will fail because he acts on the false idea that it would be good for the part of Gt. Britain north of Carlisle to make the part in the south a foreign country instead of having a Federal Government of Gt.Britain.
We are already members of a strong, proud, INDEPENDENT nation called Great Britain and should not break it up.
Shows you just how much Calum Cashley knows!! Wrong again Calum...
Council tax frozen? 500 more police? etc, etc. Where is the money coming from? Surely not us overtaxed English? I sincerely hope not.
Well said Brian and well done SNP. There does seem to be a fairly strong wind of change beginning to blow in Scotland. Unfortunately we still have the narrow political views of the other parties to contend with if some of your other Tory, Liberal and N. Labour MPs supporters commenting herin are anything to go by. They are still keeping the wind of change right ahead (to use sea-faring parlance)by quibbling about what they want in their backyard forgetting that their particular backyards are only a wee bit of a much bigger picture. Actually, all the other parties perhaps with the exception of the well-meaning but slightly eccentric Greens are a bunch of self-centered egotists who have a vague feeling that they might just be being left behind. Why dont they all jump aboard the Scottish boat and boldly go where all our futures lie?
Well, at least the Labour party is consistent. They don't want an early election Down South, and they don't want an early election here either.
Amazing how the threat of an election and the end of the gravy train focussed the " minds?"of Labour and Liberal MSP"s. Not a single constructive squeak out of either of them, the word chicken springs to mind, or is it as I suspect pure self interest that kept their fingers off the buttons. As for the Greens, an organic coconut is in order. Annabel Goldie played a blinder also, she got herself a few painless consessions and and walked away with honou intact.
Excellent analysis, Brian.
As reported elsewhere:
SL: "That's mah ball! You shouldnae huv it!"
SNP: "C'mon then, tak it frae us, ef ye think ye're hard enuf!"
Slainte!
ed
#33 John Craig,
"There are now so many of an uneducated [mostly cannot spell]..."
"...make sutch a thorough..."
"...his "scotland" that"...
Two more words for you to learn how to spell- "pot" and "kettle"
#36 Jim Currie,
I second that, but here's a bold, mad, off-the-wall prediction- the Tories will quietly drop the '...and Unionist' tag from their name before the next election.
#40 Richard the Rogue
SUTCH a ruination - not surprised you did not recognise the word play on Screaming Lord Sutch - who had attributes like Salmond Supporters.
"scotland" - In my view this part of Gt. Britain does not merit a Capital at present.
#41 Nice recovery John, you could be a politician. Hey, looks like there may be a vacancy coming up in the opposition. Maybe you should apply, the skills requirements don't appear to be too onerous.
your right brian we are goanna win the cup!! nothing wrong with your judgement.
'lets all get totally united'!!!
(me and meh mate gary robertson met yi it thi hall o'fame doo,whut a night)