Making predictions
Having been right up with all the other journos burned by Obama-mania in New Hampshire I was delighted to see that the political parties themselves are finding it …
And let us not forget that while the candidates win, lose, win again, lose again etc etc - there is a world to be run and President Bush is still .
I remember a former very senior CIA person telling me that they failed utterly to predict the downfall of the Shah because whenever senior American officials went to Tehran in those days they had a ball. The dinners were sumptuous! The hotel rooms were out of this world! I see that President Bush's own staff, for instance speechwriter Bill McGurn, are in danger of falling into the same trap - the seduction of Middle East wealth, the sense that all is well when all is not well. The dinners! The hotel rooms! Reminds me of Michigan…
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You write "– there is a world to be run and President Bush is still running it."
Many, many Americans, such as I, believe President Bush is not "running" the world but ruining it!
May Almighty God protect us all till he is finally home in Crawford!
Recently blogs passed its 10th birthday. Nowadays blogs are very popular as people's voice. (Ex. Kenyan's blogs are very good source to grab information)
It is very interesting to read your blog.
Thushara
Good point.
I find in my work, keeping my eye on the ball is critical. I ask myself almost in every meeting "what are we trying to achieve here?".
It is so easy to be blinded by the trees, so that you can't see the wood any more.
R.
It can't be a good sign if even Mitt's own party can't tell that he's won. Or is there a hidden agenda amongst the Mitchigan Republicans, since they seem to have expected McCain to win? Still, if any party has a right to be confused right now, it's the Republicans...after all, even their current President is half-forgotten.
Where in Michigan? I want to move there!
Dale,
Grand Rapids, MI
Follow the money. Predictions are easy. She who has the most money wins. Everything else is Orwellian drama to create the impression of a "race to election day."
The primary system in America is a mess. The states have democratized those, allowing cross-overs from the other party and easing residency rules, as in New Hampshire where college students can vote both in that state and in their home states as well. Such openness leads to a "gaming" of the primary elections. People here in Ohio are talking about which candidate of the other party they would prefer to see win because he/she will be weaker in the general election. Primaries in this fashion do not tell which candidate the party prefers.
Our elections are (maybe) an intentional confusion. This may give the conventions, in the summer, some use and purpose as they have not had for many election cycles. The party conventions might be worth watching this summer, for a change.
'tis amazing what money does to the senses!
I'm interested in this part of Michigan you speak of with the nice hotels and dinners o.o I haven't seen it....
Hel-lo. Ya don't have to be be smart to be on "President Bush's own staff."
Bush can hire anyone they want, and there's no guarantee those people will notice anything helpful whatsoever.
"I remember a former very senior CIA person telling me that they failed utterly to predict the downfall of the Shah..."
Well it's perhaps just as well they didn't predict his downfall. Although Iran is far from a nice free democracy, few Iranians would like the return of such a brutal and oppressive dictator. It should be remembered that Iran once had a democracy and we deliberately destroyed it and installed the Shah. To keep him in power the CIA trained the SAVAK secret police who tortured and killed thousands of dissidents.
Eventually there was a violent backlash, and although the people of Iran did not get the democracy they wanted, they certainly didn't want a western imposed dictator. If we hadn't destroyed their democracy for control of their oil in 1953, they might still have a democracy today.
These facts are rarely mentioned at the Â鶹¹ÙÍøÊ×Ò³Èë¿Ú but they are precisely the sort of thing people should be informed about because they provide a vital context for today's geopolitics.
More knocking-copy about Obama from Justin. Just a phrase 'burned by Obama-mania'. Early in the piece, of course. But why, Justin? It's still early in the game. What's your message about Obama? Come clean.
Justin,
This is a joke, isn't it? I remember the time when senior Â鶹¹ÙÍøÊ×Ò³Èë¿Ú journalists failed to predict that there would be no WMD in Iraq, because they were to busy keeping their heads in the "right" places.
What are you trying to say, apart from that you are pro-american. I wished the Â鶹¹ÙÍøÊ×Ò³Èë¿Ú would have a pro-cuban in Cuba, same for Venezuela or Iran or any other place we don't like in the West.
There is a song by Radiohead. Recommend you listen to Paranoid Android. People like you always trigger the phrase "When I am King ..." in my head.
Best wishes
PS: I am aware that you only put a selection of posts up here. My god - the land of the free ...
Michael Yates - you are an over-sensitive wee soul.
Tell me of a journalist who did not think Obama would win and I'll tell you he is a liar.
The point of the article is that the pundits have got it so wrong so far - in New Hampshire and then in Michigan.
Perhaps voters are fed up of being told that candidate X is a shoe-in?
Perhaps voters are more intelligent than some politicians give them credit for?
Perhaps voters can see through the shallowness of the politicians' policies - or in Obama's case the lack of them?
You say to remember "there is a world to be run and President Bush is still running it."
I urge you to remember he is president of the USA not the world.
Observer My point is that Justin seems unable to avoid disparaging reference to Obama in his blog. I'm not sure Justin realises it. As for policies, I'm not sure, but 'Change' is what America is looking for, I think, in many directions. Obama got that right.
No replies here either Justin