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Mild for Cheltenham's Gold Cup Day...but will it stay dry? (updated Fri. 12:45hrs)

Ian Fergusson | 09:02 UK time, Monday, 15 March 2010

(NB: REGULAR UPDATES WILL BE MADE TO THIS FORECAST)

I'm usually busy providing the weather forecasts on the Â鶹¹ÙÍøÊ×Ò³Èë¿Ú'sÌý606 ForumÌýahead of each F1 Grand Prix, but now my attention shiftsÌýto racing of a four-legged kind.

The runs this week from , with over 200,000 spectators expected to attend. So, how's the weather shaping-up for those visiting - and competing in -Ìýthis year's meeting?

Cheltenham_horses_JulianFin.jpg

MuchÌýas capturedÌýin this photo from the 2009 Ryanair Chase, grey skies will again prevail at Cheltenham but not all the time!Ìý(Photo: Julian Finney/Getty Images)

It'll certainly be mild throughout the event - a consistent themeÌýfor the weather this week. Spring-like dry and fine conditions will prevail atÌýstart the Festival and the risk of any significantÌýwet weather during most racesÌýhas lessened, based on the very latest forecast modelling.

So, here's someÌýforecast detail...

TODAY: FRIDAY 19 MARCH (Cheltenham Gold Cup Day):Ìý It's a dry, mild (about 7C)Ìýand partlyÌýcloudy start, with ratherÌýmisty visibilities around parts of the Cotswolds in the early morning - a legacy of Thursday evening's rain. The light southwesterly winds continue.Ìý

Sunny spells will develop during the morning and -Ìýafter a good deal of dry, settled but increasingly overcast weather -Ìýfurther rain is expected to arrive towards the mid afternoon.

The Gold Cup's wet-or-dry fortunes will very much hang in the balance!ÌýThe main band of rain isÌýexpected to arriveÌýinto Prestbury Park around 3pm but it's highlyÌýlikely some drizzle and outbreaks of patchy light rain could appear before then. So it'll likely prove touch and go as to how wetÌýthe course willÌýhave becomeÌýby 3.20pm, as the race gets underway!Ìý

Winds will be light to moderate SSW, gusting around 15-20mph by 3pm. It's a mild prospectÌýonce again even under the cloud cover, as maximum temperatures settleÌýaround 12-13C.ÌýÌýÌý

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(Earlier race day forecast details follow:)

THURSDAY 18 MARCH (Ladies' Day):Ìý Dry and mildÌýin the early morning andÌýdespite a good deal of high and medium-level cloud, some hazyÌýbright spells will greet spectators arriving at Prestbury Park. It will become theÌýbreeziest day of the Festival - so ladies, pin-down those hats! However, with gusts probably only to around 30mph or so by afternoon,Ìýthe wind strength willÌýnot proveÌýespecially troublesome for the course officialsÌýor the riders.Ìý

Dry, mild & increasingly breezyÌýweather is expectedÌýduring all of the morning and early afternoon. Always a lot of cloud around, but some brighter spells at times until midday.

A band ofÌýrain will arrive from the west into the afternoon andÌýearly evening period, perhaps preceded by a fewÌýshowery outbreaksÌýof light rain earlier in the afternoon as the cloud tends to thicken-up. Despite some moderately heavier bursts later in the day, the total rainfall accumulationÌýshould not trouble Prestbury Park ahead of FridayÌý- perhaps amounting to between 1 to 5mm, tops. Current forecast predictions suggest the main band of rain will appear towards 4pm and - ever-weakening after darkÌý- clear around 10pm, leaving mostly dry, mild but very cloudy / murky weather overnight, with some localised mist and hill fog.ÌýÌý

It'll certainly prove another noticeably mild day, as temperatures againÌýreach a positively balmyÌý13 to 15C into the early afternoon.

WEDNESDAY 17 MARCH (St. Patrick's Day): A milder start this time and the moderate SW breeze is just a little more noticeable compared to yesterday. A lot of cloud around in the early morning, potentially thick enough to giveÌýone or twoÌýspots of drizzle as a weakening front crosses eastwards, but this very readily fizzles-out and it's looking decent enough thereafter through the rest of the day.

With the unlikely exception of one or two spots of light rain, once again dry weather willÌýprevail today. There'll generally be a lot more cloud compared to Tuesday, but some bright or sunny spells will start to appearÌýlater this morning andÌýinto the afternoon. The breeze will easeÌýeven further through the day, with gusts no higher than 15mph - so winds are againÌýnot a feature of concern. It'll again feel pleasantlyÌýmild, even with any cloud cover, as temperatures reach around 14C.Ìý

Later through the evening and overnight, much of the low-level cloud clears and it will remain dry. It's unlikely temperatures will fall sufficiently for even a touch of grass frost and indeed quite the opposite is forecast as minima hold up at aboutÌý3 to 5C...

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