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In global geopolitics, the received wisdom tells us power is shifting eastwards, to China and Asia's emerging economies. But American geographer and author Laurence Smith has his compass pointing due north to the nations of the Arctic rim whose assets - oil, minerals, water, and empty land - will become more valuable as our planet warms. It's a seductive vision, but could exploitation of the Arctic region be a catastrophic mistake? Smith talks to Stephen Sackur.