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Thursday 24 February 2011

Sarah McDermott | 11:02 UK time, Thursday, 24 February 2011

The world is watching the most extraordinary chain of events in the Middle East and North Africa.

At 1900 on Â鶹¹ÙÍøÊ×Ò³Èë¿Ú Two this evening we have a special programme in which we'll try to make sense of a story that is changing day by day, and ask what it means for the region, the West and the world.

Allan Little will be mapping the upsurge of unrest from Tunisia to Egypt, Bahrain and beyond and looking at common strands and differences in the protests.

Tim Whewell will give his assessment of what forms of government are likely to emerge as a result of these uprisings, and how the West might respond.

Paul Mason will explain the dynamics of the unrest - profiling the protestors and explaining how they've harnessed technology to get their messages heard.

And we'll also be debating the issues with guests in the studio and around the world including citizen journalist Gigi Ibrahim, Libyan author Hisham Matar, historian Simon Schama, philosopher Francis Fukuyama, commentator Reihan Salam, academic and activist Azzam Tamimi and diplomat Sir Christopher Meyer.

Then at 2230 on Â鶹¹ÙÍøÊ×Ò³Èë¿Ú Two Tim Whewell will be assessing who controls what in Libya - and specifically Tripoli - at the moment.

David Grossman will be examining why the price of crude oil is going up, and the reasons behind the spike.

Matt Prodger will be looking at the Gaddafi family ties with members of Britain's business, political and academic elite.

And Paul Mason has a report on the impact on Irish culture of the country's economic woes on the eve of the general election there.

Do join Gavin Esler for editions of Newsnight at 1900 and then again at 2230 on Â鶹¹ÙÍøÊ×Ò³Èë¿Ú Two.

Comments

  • Comment number 1.

    MALE WORLD MALE PROBLEMS MALE 'SOLUTIONS' MALE VALUES MALE 'SUCCESS'

    The Muslim culture 'sees fit' to partition male and female. Tyrants and Rebel leaders are generally men - rousing male behaviours. Male orientated Britain, through the medium of 'woe-men'-minded Â鶹¹ÙÍøÊ×Ò³Èë¿Ú, will now purport to investigate 'what is going on and why'.

    If they find an a-typical woman in the 'Arab street', she will be asked for opinion, but what of the Muslim women, out of sight? Talk to then Â鶹¹ÙÍøÊ×Ò³Èë¿Ú, and you might just move the subject forward.

    The male of the species will never have the wisdom and insight to sort out this multi-century mess of his making.

  • Comment number 2.

    After watching Panorama and the excellent Fergal Kean's exposure of the Irish money crash it is a wonder that anyone would consider buying a property ever again but here we go again, risking everything once again...we never learn...

  • Comment number 3.

    'At 1900 on Â鶹¹ÙÍøÊ×Ò³Èë¿Ú Two this evening we have a special programme in which we'll try to make sense of a story.

    Will it have 'special reporters'?

    I just ask but...

    /news/world-us-canada-12541297

    ... this made me crank an eyebrow...

    '... The pirates report ...'

    ... and wonder who else we may have 'reporting' via the Â鶹¹ÙÍøÊ×Ò³Èë¿Ú, for our education and information on matters of some confusion, but significance.

    Looking forward to many more, interesting versions of "Our Man In Havana' in future... 'Our Pirate In Addis Abba, maybe? Or 'Our Katyuscha-launcher and tunnel critic in Gaza' maybe?

    Mind you...

    '...The incident will provoke further debate on whether the use of force is wise...'

    Is worth pondering as some, if selectively, seem keen to do stuff they were less keen on before, and get oodles of coverage for sending the gunboat stuff mic-grabbling when perhaps not the soundest of advocates.



    I think somewhere his Newsnight outing was also mentioned, albeit free of much challenge beyond assisting his opportunism.

    Anyway, maybe a period of reflection will allow saner minds to prevail...



    ... in Libya too, as much as our professional domestic views media industry.

    Lastly, when'... joined in debate by social activist Naomi Klein, and citizen journalist Gigi Ibrahim', might one need to be cautious on the scope of the subject by virtue of those included. I just ask, because 'citizen journalists' sounds much like bloggers, and the Â鶹¹ÙÍøÊ×Ò³Èë¿Ú seems less keen on these kind of 'journalist' over those who... ahem... 'report'. I'll get me parrot.

  • Comment number 4.

    Had a little surf about.

    Hey, half term!

    Good job almost all Â鶹¹ÙÍøÊ×Ò³Èë¿Ú political bloggers are either on school holidays or are closed, as it is indeed a good time to head for the bunker on the reaction to coverage so far this week on Libya.

    With luck the sand will have drifted and the dust settled by the time all return.

    Then they can 'report' on what they get told by those they follow on twitter.

  • Comment number 5.

    JUST ONE (OF MANY) REASONS TO SPOILPARTYGAMES (#3 link 2)

    It is so glaringly obvious that the prime imperative of any political party (or party-cipher) is (like monarchy) to ensure CONTINUITY OF POWER.
    All else is secondary. In a crisis, it leads to hesitation; it also leads to second-best choices as pre-emptive damage-limitation, should the other party find an attack angle.

    This is not governance, it is power games at our 'expense' both in terms of money and of the people's wellbeing.

  • Comment number 6.

    INCREDIBILITY DAVE HAS A FRIEND IN THE Â鶹¹ÙÍøÊ×Ò³Èë¿Ú

    I have noted before Dave's quasi-superlative 'INCREDIBLE'. When cornered for an apology for Libya debacle he weaselled out that he is INCREDIBLY SORRY that people have had a difficult time. Close - no cigar.

    INCREDIBLE: 'So implausible as to elicit disbelief'. Dave IS incredible.

    When Radio 4 News reported, he had become EXTREMELY sorry. Another cigar goes unsmoked.

    I suggest that Dave's unconscious is trying to warn us. Those that have ears to hear, let them hear. Remember the other Dave on the election poster? HE WAS INCREDIBLE TOO.

    WE HAVE GOT OURSELVES ANOTHER INCREDIBLE ONE.

  • Comment number 7.

    This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the house rules. Explain.

  • Comment number 8.

    HARRY MOUNT - LATIN LOVE IN A WINDOW BOX (#3 link 3)

    Is that guy real Junkk? He seems to be able to write from 'any angle'. I get the feeling his dismissal of America, is a bit contrived, not because they can necessarily stay a super-power, BUT BECAUSE THEY ARE A ROGUE STATE and that will not change any time soon.

    Does anyone doubt that America leads in EVERY KIND of WMD (Wilfully Malign Destructors); the term applying to both technology and GOVERNING NUTTERS?

    I keep pointing out that, in every age, there is one or more deranged leader WHO NEEDS TO RULE THE KNOWN WORLD. The known world is now the planet, in its entirety. America may well be our Global Gaddafi in the future.

    It is not easy being science-trained and imaginative . . .

  • Comment number 9.

  • Comment number 10.

    In Gaddafi's latest rant he states :
    that Libya was not like Egypt and Tunisia, which have seen their leaders deposed, because the people of Libya had it in their own hands to change their lives through committees.

    "This is your country and it is up to you how to deal with it," he said.

    I think I know the answer, but could you ask your expert panel just how much power these committees had, say last year, were they puppets or possible organs of change.

  • Comment number 11.

    JOHN BUNYAN SHOULD HAVE VISITED WISLEY (7 link)

    The 'idea' of 'God' is an endless source of wonderful rhetoric, but it only takes a few moments thought to realise the impact of the newborn, imprints the ubiquitous 'religious experience' BEFORE WE HAVE FACULTY TO ASSESS IT.

    The Ape Confused by Language is also the Ape Pre-conditioned by Birth to espouse the 'higher power' paradigm, particularly around puberty's re-configuring.

    Had we the chance (before being indoctrinated) to glory in our own being, as an inexorable product of Cosmic Parameters, standing way higher than any pathetic god, we might just make something of ourselves.
    (Perversely, we tend to damp down self-glory, especially the believers.)

    Looking at each flower type, in the wonderful new greenhouse at Wisley, you can go the 'Creator God' route, oh so easily. But what an insult that 'He' frittered his time designing flowers. Far better to see THAT design further expressed in US, and to look for ways to optimise human 'blooming' - individually and collectively. (While the opportunity is here.)

    Whatever Julian Assange writes in his Guantanamo cell, I hope he leaves God out of it.

  • Comment number 12.

    JOHN BUNYAN SHOULD HAVE VISITED UNSPECIFIED BOTANIC GARDENS (7 link)

    This has been modified to appease Blogdog @ #11

    The 'idea' of 'God' is an endless source of wonderful rhetoric, but it only takes a few moments thought to realise the impact of the newborn, imprints the ubiquitous 'religious experience' BEFORE WE HAVE FACULTY TO ASSESS IT.

    The Ape Confused by Language is also the Ape Pre-conditioned by Birth to espouse the 'higher power' paradigm, particularly around physical maturing's re-configuring.

    Had we the chance (before being indoctrinated) to glory in our own being, as an inexorable product of Cosmic Parameters, standing way higher than any pathetic god, we might just make something of ourselves.
    (Perversely, we tend to damp down self-glory, especially the believers.)

    Looking at each flower type, in the wonderful new greenhouse at an unspecified botanic garden, you can go the 'Creator God' route, oh so easily. But what an insult that 'He' frittered his time designing flowers. Far better to see THAT design further expressed in US, and to look for ways to optimise human 'blooming' - individually and collectively. (While the opportunity is here.)

    Whatever Julian Assange writes in an unnamed prison complex cell, I hope he leaves God out of it.

  • Comment number 13.

    Some positive news for a change !

  • Comment number 14.

    odd moderator #7 call anyway the link posted can be found here

    /news/technology-12007616

    Aaron Bady's compelling analysis of Assange's politics, as published on the zunguzungu blog.

    interesting on several points covered recently
    and best of luck to the chap I think he's going to need it

  • Comment number 15.

    francis fukuyama? Oh GREAT - no doubt he will AGAIN attempt to inform us that Muslims are incapable of a properly democratic Govt. So unlike the UK and US, of course. Sickening. The NWO isn't giving up easily.


    #3 link 2: i wasn't aware that Scotland's release of Al Megrahi, and the UK's trade links with Libya "set this all off". I imagine the Libyans would be rather pleased with us, if that was true.

    the 'problem' the tories and new labour are having "explicating" what has happened, and our role in it, is that they have to maintain the illusion that the UK works for "peace and democracy" under them, when it is patently obvious they have done the opposite.


    #3 link 3: pure and utter fantasy. The US spokesman on Libya last night made that plain - the US is still regarding itself as the 'Capo di tutti Capi', sending its soldattis and death squads wherever its "interests" (read KKKorporate profits) are threatened.


    barrie: superb mate, just superb. :)

  • Comment number 16.

    THE DANGER OF THE DELUSIONAL LEADER WITH CONTROL OF ARMED FORCES

    In recent years Britain has seen:

    1/ The emergence of an above-average delusional Prime Minister.

    2/ Cabinet ministers cowed/duped into compliance by feudal deference.

    3/ Parliament manipulated by PM into endorsing invasion by our forces.

    The British Prime Minister is, de facto, head of the armed forces. They too are steeped in hierarchical (feudal) obedience. History has examples of delusional leaders declaring some spurious emergency, and taking absolute control WITH MINDLESS BACKING OF THE ARMED FORCES.

    While we watch Dictatorships in turmoil, we should not forget that, because the Westminster citadel has repelled all reform, quasi-democracy though we may be, we have MORE IN COMMON with Dictator-ruled states than separates us. And:

    WE HAVE GOT OURSELVES ANOTHER ONE.

  • Comment number 17.

    IT'S A MALE THING (#14 link)

    The final paragraph asserts that governments will seek to ensure their power is undiminished. See various of my posts today.

    Nuf sed.

  • Comment number 18.

    This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the house rules. Explain.

  • Comment number 19.

    OUT OF MY PRAM - MESSAGE SENT TO CONSERVATIVE PARTY CHAIRMAN



    "In the 2010 General Election, a flyer issued by Conservative Headquarters, carried an assertion that would appear to contravene the Representation of the People Act 1983 section 115 (undue influence).
    I have made wide representation, receiving mostly silence or non-sequitur. I wish to challenge The Conservative Party directly; please advise how to proceed."

    This being a democracy, under the Rule of Law, presided over by Decent Chap Dave, who wants to predict the nature of the reply?


  • Comment number 20.

    GENETIC BREAKTHROUGH - MEN CAN NOW CARRY BABIES TO TERM

    Government calls for 50% of all babies to be born to men by 2050.

    And women to be urged into serving Mammon at higher level - truly we are in the Age of Perversity.

  • Comment number 21.

    #16 barrie:

    "The British Prime Minister is, de facto, head of the armed forces. They too are steeped in hierarchical (feudal) obedience. History has examples of delusional leaders declaring some spurious emergency, and taking absolute control WITH MINDLESS BACKING OF THE ARMED FORCES. "

    have you read the superb Dorsai series, by Gordon R Dickson?

    quite relevant to our times, too.

  • Comment number 22.

    THANKS MORK (#21)

    I find reading more taxing than walking-and-thinking (and blogging those thoughts out loud). Hence I am part-way through The Master and His Emissary (nominal truth more diverting than fiction) and have a pile yet to start.

    But I browsed an overview, at your prompting. He certainly seems to be on track.

    Nannu nannu.

  • Comment number 23.

    This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the house rules. Explain.

  • Comment number 24.

    The only House Rule violated in the Christopher Rudd comment was a simple criticism of a Â鶹¹ÙÍøÊ×Ò³Èë¿Ú interviewer. This feels more like censorship. NO?!

  • Comment number 25.

  • Comment number 26.

    Israel. Livni. Why is Israel resisting so strenuously giving the Palestinians the same rights as Jews? What is this strange mental malaise that is preventing them from seeing the Palestinians are people too? This odd mentality has not only impoverished and crippled both Palestinian and Jewish lives, has not only bankrupted Israel, but is bringing Israel to the point of destruction.

    This is a forlorn hope, but i hope Israelis will realise the time is NOW to start on a Path to real peace, to recognise Palestinian equal human rights (and with that, a One-State solution would be possible), and to go public with that recognition. It is time - and passed time - for the Jews to return to a Civilised world, they have surely inflicted upon the innocent Palestinians the same level of suffering they received themselves in Europe in the 1930s/40s.

    it MUST end now. If the Jews do REALLY believe in living in their 'ancient homeland'. Making authentic peace with the Palestinians is the only way to secure long-term peace in the region, and the continued existence of Israel.


    from tonight's report, some Muslim Brotherhood staff-members want to keep the Peace Treaty with Israel, that would be greatly strengthened if Israel stopped abusing the Palestinians. Jews of the World, is a Permanent War with the Middle East and North Africa the future you envision for Israel? Will never-ending warfare and enmity make Global Jewry safe for future generations? The US is not going to prop up Israel much longer, what will happen then? A new Diaspora for another 2000years? How long could Israel survive under an oil embargo?

    by חסד, please return to common sense and decent humanity.



    historian simon, such evolutions *CAN* "put food on the table", if they address basic economic concerns, and transfer the 'profits' from their own labour back to the workforces, in a move to build liberal capitalism, and social democracy. The Danish revolution just over 100 years ago was remarkably able to raise the living standards of the populace, as well as laying the foundations for what was once, before they went right-wing during 9/11, one of the most advanced Welfare Societies and highest standards of Human Rights. So such revolutions *can* work - if the new civil society knows what it wants properly. Not 'get rich quick' schemes and cheap debt like in German-dominated East and Central Europe, but a transfer of productive wealth to those producing the wealth in a Capitalist, liberal model. Add in social democracy, and the Middle East could start to look similar to Norway in not too long a time. The crucial element will be choosing honest leaders who stay transparent, accountable and honest! (and if they found out how to do that, i hope they will twitter it to us as well!!)


    Libya: it is unlikely that Ghaddafi could stay in power, but the only way he or his family might manage it would be to repatriate ALL his economic holdings to the workers, with the rest back to the Libyan State. Then allow freedom of speech, remove controls and scrutiny of the Libyan blogosphere, and accept free and fair elections. He should embrace the humbleness of the religion he was brought up in. And he should do this transfer immediately, before our corrupt Western leaders steal that money for themselves - just as they did the money held for "Iraqi Reconstruction". Colonel, if you don't give it away, then it will be stolen from you. At least let that money benefit the people of Libya!


    paul M: this "nightmare" has existed for a *VERY* long time, in certain ways the Roman Empire has a hand in what we are seeing now. With enough accurate information, and understanding of the relevant systems, and human social/political psychology, it all becomes roughly mappable. Not that such maps bring much comfort. But they can provide illumination to avoid certain pitfalls, and highlight when porkies are being told. I started writing about ecological sanity, and economic democratization, and systems analysis, and the problems of 'deregulation', and the consequences of the Middle East oppression 10 or more years ago. If i may seem occasionally 'prophetic', it is sometimes simply because i have been tracking these events in depth, for a long time.

    i would not say that such learning has made me particularly happy, perhaps "ignorance IS bliss", indeed.


    loved the "revolution special" earlier in the night. BTW, gigi was lovely, again, but the woman from the American Economic Institute (i think?) was awesome!

    as was the youngish "they... us" arab guy, amongst others.

    rofl'd my head off at Gavin's question to Fukuyama about "the Historic events". :) Was not a pleasure to see him on the show again!


    momentous times. Hope it turns out well. I'd say the odds on that are slowly increasing, but still scarily low. But hey, what do *i* know??

    Israel/the US could attack Iran tomorrow, or a hundred other idiocies, and that would be that. Unless you know how to hitch a ride from Vogons...?

    me, i'm going to take a risk on basic human intelligence, and basic goodness. Sucker for punishment i guess. :/

  • Comment number 27.

    '8. At 2:25pm on 24 Feb 2011, barriesingleton wrote:
    HARRY MOUNT - Is that guy real Junkk?'


    Couldn't say. I tend to pay more attention to what folk say than who they might be. Doesn't mean I always agree or disagree when I link, so I tend to let others make their own minds up.

    Here's another to chew over....



    Not the line being run in many quarters, which is why it caught my eye. Sometimes you have to shovel a lot to get to diamonds.

  • Comment number 28.

    WHAT JEWS AND MUSLIMS SHOULD UNDERSTAND (#26)

    All religious dogma is secondary to the Christian. Christian Dogma came direct from the SON OF THE ONE GOD who founded his church PERSONALLY. No intermediaries diluted the message.

    Short of God, Himself, coming down here to knock a few heads together, you can't get more kudos than His only son.

    If Tony just gave them that one message, it would all be sorted in a week.

  • Comment number 29.

    BY 'REAL' I MEANT AUTHENTIC JUNKK (#27)

    I get the impression Mr Mount takes pride in writing from any point of view on any subject. But I agree with you about collecting lots of low grade info, and finding (even assembling) the gems.

    In passing: it's always risky being an alien in a barmy country. I seem to remember WE have shot a few . . .

  • Comment number 30.

    I'M A WISDOM MAN ME (#33)

    I admire it when I find it! I suggest Sasha, jericoa, myself and other posters of a philosophical bent, are all 'thinking out loud' here - and elsewhere - rather like the potential suicide's 'cry for help'.

    Isn't wisdom all embracing? Not as precise as rationality, in fact none of the above - quite. Wisdom contains all the 'intangibles' of living, PLUS the freedom to apply - or not - as is the wisest course.

    Should one of my usual assassins wish to berate me for lack of PRACTICAL suggestion, and proper effort, my 1995 submission to Rowntree is here:


  • Comment number 31.

    Not big on the blame game myself, but as some are, and seem to enjoy a lot of air time at an inopportune time, maybe these aspects need raising, if only to give them and producers less choosy on running PR pause:


  • Comment number 32.

    Mindys Housemate....hear hear....

  • Comment number 33.

    NOT ONLY DO WE SELL WEAPONS BUT WE INNOVATE FOR 'MAIM BEFORE KILL'(#31)

    I was a laboratory innovator for many years. I remember learning of 'improved' Napalm that sticks to flesh, and Fleshette needles packed inside bullets, that spread into the body, and use up a surgeon's time - or just fester.

    SOME innovator invents these things WITH INTENT. He could sit by you on the train. Gaddafi is not the only fruit.

    Nuff sed.


  • Comment number 34.

    #33

    Interesting (and all too sadly true) Barriesingleton

    I sometimes get to events where spectacular and moving tributes and fly pasts are held with the cream of our still flying fighters and bombers. Amazing sights and sounds, wonderful stories of triumphs and tragedies. And then, with tears (or maybe just the sun) in eyes, there is the recall that these 'wonderful' machines were made for one purpose only. To kill and main others.

    Then again, I think about children playing. Parents who refuse to let them have guns, swords or other weaponry as toys. They always find a way of turning a stick into whatever they want to play with.

    I suspect we are a doomed race. We cannot NOT fight.

  • Comment number 35.

    '34. At 3:56pm on 25 Feb 2011, BrightYangThing

    I suspect we are a doomed race. We cannot NOT fight.


    Doomed maybe; the dinosaurs have a few million years on us yet. But I think the race is good for a while yet. Perhaps just doomed to fight within it, leaving winners or losers with each twist and turn.

    Unless one set decides to cease fighting for something and is content with simply being the one never known for unleashing nothingness, MAD ceases to apply and a WMD does actually do what it says on the tin.

    Darwin explained it all pretty well for living things, but 'we' evolved a bit beyond the plants and all other animals, and with the nihilistic aspects some introduced to the psychology over the physiology, your suspicion may be borne out. Hard to negotiate on an earthly plane with those who don't rate being here as high on the deal-making stakes.

    Sadly, some genies cannot be put back in bottles, and hence a contingency or two might be required.

    In light of the forgoing pragmatism in this thread, blind faith in all human nature might not quite be enough.

    But some sure can spin another filler in the 24/7 'news' cycle out of it.

  • Comment number 36.

    hahaha gavin lost it in the saif interview. how high is the pedestal he believes he is on? is anyone else up there?

    being paid by the bbc is being paid by a enforced tax. should a civil servant be self righteous about that? how many arms dealers, drug dealers, sex slavers etc pay a licence fee? how clean is that tax money? will the bbc refuse any licence fee paid by illegal earnings? will gavin insist on only clean money paying the licence fee or resign? or does everyone, including civil servants, have their nose rubbed in dirty money?

    tank tops
    in the 1970s we had both recession and high interest rates. so its possible.

    ireland

    more financial induced political contagion? when will be the uk's? when unemployment reaches 4 million?

  • Comment number 37.

    Esler's prog "Revolution 2011" was valuable particularly Jon Simpson's remark about 1989, which got thru to me during the program. Why indeed has it taken so long for 1989 to get to the middle East which seemed to be as much a part of the division of the world, in its own way, as say South Africa was?

    The question of whether the leaders involved were powerless to prevent but were not even aware of the probabilities of being deposed, is an interesting one. Perhaps out old departed friend Saddam Hussein was the
    first to go in the middle East. Now the rest are to follow in whichever way they or their people choose. It was fairly obvious that Saddam did not want the same fate as Ceausescu for example. He wanted his choice of going and avoided it as long as he could. Ceausescu was mindless about it, but then the plaything of Gorbachev, the only one about whom Gorbachev felt bad in hindsight.

    The Middle East, yes now indeed has exactly the same pluralist democratic options that East European countries had in the 1990s.

    They are aware of GLOBALIST requirements and such as gigi Ibrahim are thoroughly well versed in what is expected of them by the world community.

    My good friend Lord Soley cheered for it, a month ago. I am cheering for it too now!

    What is more the dramatic transition from Eastern bloc satellites to members of the EU may well be emulated by the Arab states, a pluralist and larger Arab League or other international organisation will certainly be mooted, in my opinion including Turkey.

    Globalism has got to include larger international organisation as an objective. Baroness Ashton and the president of Europe are in the forefront of negotiation and leadership to achieve effective dialogue with the Arab world all together.

    It will still be a while before the Silk road states Association or similar will be able to vie on the world stage as pluralist international democracies but the Arab world (AL) will certainly lead the way in the Islamic world.

    United Nations rule ok!


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